Trend Persian Desk Head Dalga Khatinoglu
Important events taking place on the eve of Iran's talks with the "P5+1" (represented by Catherine Ashton, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy), scheduled for Dec.5 in Geneva, show that the ongoing attrition war between Tehran and Western countries may reach very sensitive and hopeless moment. Terror acts against two Iranian nuclear scientists, IAEA Secretary General's new report on Iran's nuclear program and its discussion at the Agency's Board of Governors, imposing new sanctions of the U.S. against Iran, as well as scandalous information on Iran, disseminated by WikiLeaks, - all these will surely affect the course of talks, frozen for 14 months.
Despite the fact that, after unsuccessful talks of the two sides of "5 +1" (Russia, China, USA, France, Britain and Germany) with Iran in September last year, there has been no meeting between the sides any more, however, serious processes have been observed during this period. The UN Security Council's Resolution 1929 on Iran, the U.S. and Europe's sanctions against the country, inclusion of two IAEA specialists in the "black list" by Iran and a number of other issues indicate that the atmosphere in the current talks will be cool and at the same time very tense compared to the previous ones.
Iran has accused the "P5+1" of organizing terror acts against the country's nuclear scientists. During his speech in Mazandaran province, President Ahmadinejad said that in case of repeated terror acts, Iran will sue the UN Security Council's permanent members. Ahmadinejad said the reason for this will be the fact that the name of the scientist Fereydoun Abbasi, who was subjected to the terrorist attack, was mentioned in the UN Security Council Resolution 1747, and an embargo was imposed towards this scientist.
Iran is even more sensitive to the publication of the details of the country's nuclear program by the IAEA. Thus, Iran has condemned the publication of the number of centrifuges by the Agency's Secretary General in its new report, read out on Nov.23. Interesting fact is that the IAEA made public many details of Iran's nuclear program also in previous reports, but Tehran didn't respond to them as sharply as now.
According to the documents, disseminated by WikiLeaks site, Obama's Administration was not confident in resolving the Iranian nuclear issue through talks before. These documents also show that like Israel, some Arab countries support the idea of attacking on Iran. All these, at least, justify the creation of technologies that could help in mastering the nuclear weapons for defensive purposes by Iran. Neither economic privileges nor the economic sanctions will be able to keep the regime, whose existence is under threat, from attempts to get a strategic guarantee for its security. Iran is also not an exception to the rule.
Changes around Iranian nuclear program
Uranium exchange, which was considered beneficial for both Iran and Western countries 14 months ago, today is no longer interesting for the West, and is not topic of discussions for Iran. If in 2009 the uranium stocks in Iran amounted to 1,500 kg, today they hit 3,200 kg. In addition, Iran started to enrich uranium and currently has 35 kg of the 20-percent enriched uranium. Though, Iran doesn't possess the technology of turning uranium into fuel for reactors yet. However, if Iran could turn 35 kg of the 20 percent uranium gas into fuel, then it can operate the Tehran nuclear laboratory a minimum for five years.
The Amirabad research reactor in Tehran is used for medical purposes. It was built in 1960. Last time Argentina provided the fuel for this reactor in 1990's.
On the other hand, a year ago, active centrifuges at Iran's Natanz uranium enrichment plant was thrice more. Reducing the number of active centrifuges, as well as increasing the stock of low-enriched uranium twice indicate that Iran could produce new types of centrifuges, with greater efficiency. Iran should have 60,000 active centrifuges to provide nuclear power plants with fuel, but 3,000 centrifuges are enough to produce the 90-percent uranium used in warheads of nuclear weapons.
However, the "Stuxnet" virus that hit the Iranian nuclear facilities' computers, and terror against the Iranian nuclear scientists show that the West continues confrontation with Iran not only by sanctions, but also with less than honest methods of fighting.
Processes show that, despite an increase in "trump card" in both sides of the negotiation process, tension in the relations has also increased, so the possibility of using these "trump cards" is still a big question.