Baku, Azerbaijan, Dec. 3
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Electric vehicles will displace 11 million barrels per day of oil in US, EU, China by 2040, according to Wood Mackenzie research and consulting company.
"The global energy transition will continue to progress, led in large part to technologies and decarbonization trends we're already seeing in the marketplace – the rise of renewables, growth in electric vehicles, electrification of end-use demand, increasing efficiency," said the company.
Under the carbon-constrained scenario, WoodMac predicts by 2040, the US, EU and China will see electric vehicles account for 100 percent of new vehicle sales, collectively displacing 11 million barrels per day (b/d) of oil and helping accelerate peak oil to 2031, five years ahead of its base case.
Renewables are the clear winners in this carbon-constrained scenario, growing at an annual average rate of 11 percent between 2015 and 2035, and increasing their share of primary energy demand by a factor of seven over the same period, according to Wood Mackenzie.
"Wind and solar capacity grows nine-fold from 7 percent of total power supply today to nearly 40 percent by 2040. While not commercially viable today, large-scale energy storage technologies also eventually come to the fore, with 780 gigawatts installed globally by 2040."
Elaborating on what the scenario means for commodities, David Brown, senior analyst at Wood Mackenzie said that fossil fuel use will not disappear any time soon.
"Our scenario envisages fossil fuels having a 77 percent share of global energy demand in 2035 – versus 79 percent in our base case – as major markets such as China and the EU reach similar levels of fossil fuel shares."
Natural gas will see continued demand growth through 2040, driven by emerging markets such as China, India and Southeast Asia, with Asia Pacific accounting for more than 60 percent of incremental demand 2018-2040, according to Wood Mackenzie.
But in slower-growing power markets like the EU and USA with high penetration of renewables, gas demand growth will be more limited, the company believes.
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