BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 31. Amid a fractured global landscape, Azerbaijan navigates an independent foreign policy, expanding its strategic relevance and establishing itself as a regional pillar of stability, security, and economic growth. Hosting COP29, a significant international summit, signals the respect and influence that Azerbaijan now wields on the world stage.
The spike in hybrid attacks against Azerbaijan aligns conspicuously with the upcoming COP29, a moment when international attention will turn sharply towards the country. Some expect that this global gaze could pressure Azerbaijan into concessions. Yet President Ilham Aliyev, speaking at the first session of the National Assembly, addressed deep-seated global injustices and warned of provocations that may lie ahead. In Jabrayil, he delivered a pointed warning against any accusations threatening Azerbaijan’s sovereignty and the will of its people. For Azerbaijan, external pressure has never compromised the independence of its policy or sovereignty.
These hybrid attacks are, in reality, a continuation of a long-standing and systematic campaign of pressure. From appeals by select U.S. Congress members to the Secretary of State to discussions in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe that pointedly exclude Azerbaijani voices, recent maneuvers in the European Parliament, fabricated reports, and disinformation campaigns across Western media—all share a common narrative. Public discussions initiated by Azerbaijan’s commission on hybrid threats have highlighted the orchestrated nature of these actions.
At the root of these attacks is Azerbaijan’s creation of a new geopolitical reality. As a nation committed to peace and regional stability, Azerbaijan has eschewed becoming a battlefield, a stance that undoubtedly unsettles certain state interests. Azerbaijan recognizes that these pressures also stem from competition over energy and transport. Its independent energy strategy, notable advances in renewable energy, and strategic transport corridors bridging Asia and Europe have rendered Azerbaijan a crucial partner.
Remaining firmly independent and grounded in mutual respect, Azerbaijan refrains from meddling in the internal affairs of other states, even as it possesses the means and legitimacy to do so.
As preparations for COP29 progress, let it be clear to our critics that preparations have been meticulously conducted at the highest levels, with thorough reviews on both substantive and organizational aspects. Accessibility checks have been completed, and training sessions organized.
Let them also understand that COP29 matters not only for Azerbaijan but also for the region and the future of the world. The World Bank projects that, due to climate change, up to 143 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America could be displaced by 2050. This migration will largely be driven by rising sea levels, water scarcity, decreasing agricultural yields, and extreme weather events. By 2050, global migration is expected to encompass millions, underscoring the pressing need for climate action, adaptation strategies, and international collaboration.
Against this backdrop, the hybrid attacks that attempt to exploit COP29 to target Azerbaijan reveal an unsettling truth: for some states, geopolitical gains trump the health and safety of millions. Frankly, these efforts come as little surprise after witnessing the vaccine nationalism and inhumane stance taken by some wealthy nations during the occupation of Karabakh and the COVID-19 pandemic. Back then, when vaccine nationalism reared its head, President Ilham Aliyev led the Non-Aligned Movement in rallying global efforts toward fair vaccine distribution.
The Movement’s strong opposition to the vaccine nationalism adopted by some wealthy countries—and the subsequent UN resolutions ensuring equitable and universal vaccine access—demonstrated its leadership in the pandemic response. During COP29, Azerbaijan will again assume leadership, ensuring that discussions will go beyond environmental issues to include significant contributions to regional development and economic stability.
Finally, I wish to draw attention to a crucial point: the organizers of these hybrid attacks know full well that their unfounded assaults will not shake the resolve of the Azerbaijani people or their unity with the President. Even with this awareness, they carry out these attacks with several aims.
Their main goal is less about influencing Azerbaijani society and more about damaging Azerbaijan’s image on the international stage, particularly among Western nations and organizations. The artificially constructed negative reputation could impact a nation’s economic ties. Those behind these hybrid attacks seek to curb Azerbaijan’s rising influence by targeting its image.
Hybrid attacks are often deployed to constrain Azerbaijan’s economic and political strategies. Before key decisions on energy resources can even be made, such attacks seek to weaken the country’s standing and sow doubt among Western investors and partners. These efforts, in essence, aim to force Azerbaijan into a cautious stance in its economic and political activities, granting strategic advantages to those behind the assaults.
A key driver of these attacks is Azerbaijan’s increasingly prominent role in the region, particularly its strategic position in energy, which unsettles certain states and factions. Through hybrid offensives, these entities attempt to weaken Azerbaijan and shift the regional balance of power. The pressure, whether from Western powers or other regional actors, is directed at limiting Azerbaijan’s influence across the South Caucasus and beyond.
At times, such attacks are not solely aimed at Azerbaijan but serve as messages to the organizers’ domestic audiences—often deployed during election cycles—to reassure their constituents and allies of their commitment to values like human rights, democracy, and environmental protection. By staging these attacks, the organizers present themselves as defenders of these ideals.
Ultimately, the purpose of these hybrid attacks goes beyond influencing Azerbaijani society. The broader aim is to weaken Azerbaijan’s international position, undermine its foreign policy, and constrain its independent decision-making to gain the upper hand in the global balance of power.
Under the wise and principled leadership of President Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan has responded firmly and effectively to such hybrid challenges. His foresighted policy and deep political experience enable Azerbaijan to resolutely defend its national interests, economic independence, and sovereignty. Strategic moves and robust diplomatic responses under President Ilham Aliyev’s leadership ensure that Azerbaijan is equipped to address any pressures or provocations. These provocations cannot and will not affect Azerbaijan’s independent policies or economic strength.
Azerbaijan’s rising influence on the international stage and its leadership role in the region are direct results of President Ilham Aliyev’s determined, nationally focused policy. The country’s independence, economic growth, and global strengthening are irreversible processes.
Kamal Jafarov
Member of the Parliament (Milli Majlis) of Azerbaijan