Azerbaijan, Baku, Dec. 22 /Trend, A.Badalova/
Maintaining its current policy, Iran will not be able to realize its plans to supply gas to European markets in the near future. And the only hope for Iran in this regard is Turkey, said international experts.
"Iran's best hope in the current political environment is to incrementally develop gas deliveries to Turkey in hope that some time in the future Iran can be integrated into a pipeline system to Europe," Andrew Reed, analyst at Energy Security Analysis (ESAI), wrote in an e-mail to Trend.
Now that Turkmenistan is openly embracing construction of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline, the West can afford to focus on this project and exclude Iran, said Reed.
Iran, whose proven gas reserves are estimated at 29.61 trillion cubic meters (according to BP as of beginning of 2010), has repeatedly stated its intention to deliver its gas to European countries. However, these plans now look dim due to the refusal to consider the country as a supplier because of the Iran's nuclear program.
The West will continue refusing to cooperate with Iran in all fields, including energy field, and if Iran does not change in political plan, it will not be able to sell its gas to Europe, said Alexander Rahr, a German political scientist and expert on energy policy, member of the Trend Expert Council.
"Maybe Iran today has really nothing to do except cooperation with Turkey," Rahr, the director of the German Council on Foreign Relations' Russia-Eurasia Center, told Trend by telephone from Berlin.
According to him, in reality, it is very important for Iran to sell its gas, including to the West, since the Iranian economy mostly focuses on the sale of energy carriers, and it is unprofitable to refuse cooperation.
According to Rahr, Turkey is economically interested in buying gas, including from Iran.
"The gas to Europe will in any case go through Turkey. Turkey is the only country without which none of the gas pipelines from Central Asia to Europe will be constructed. Ankara does not want to be just a transit country for gas, as it is today. Using its excellent geopolitical situation, it is performing this map and will buy and sell gas like its own," he said.
The situation around Iran's nuclear program becomes more aggravated each day. United States this week tightened sanctions against Iran, expanding the "black list" of Iranian companies. The disagreements appeared between London and Tehran further separates Iran from the international community.
Commission on national security and foreign policy of the Iranian Parliament on Sunday approved a bill that requires a complete break of ties, including political, cultural and economic relations with Britain.
The move only reinforces Western resolve for sanctions, Reed believes.
According to the professor at Tehran University Pirouz Mojtahedzadeh, if Iran is going to take such a decision, then the damage to economic relations does not have much significance for it.
"But I think the parliament knows that if Iran stops relations with other states, it will bring damage primarily to Iran itself, even when talking about such a country like Burkina Faso," Mojtahedzadeh told Trend.
E.Tariverdiyeva, T.Jafarov contributed to article.