Azerbaijan, Baku, Dec.30 / Trend E. Ostapenko /
Holding a referendum on the extension of the Kazakh President's powers will not freeze the internal political rivalry. On the contrary, it will entail an intensification of activity in the next parliamentary elections, Adviser to President for Political Affairs, Yermukhamet Yertysbayev, believes.
"As a result of holding the referendum the struggle is likely to sharpen complications for the next parliament," Yertysbayev said in an interview with the Kazakh newspaper, "Liter".
The terms of powers of the Kazakh parliament of the fourth convocation will expire in December 2012. Presidential elections are to take place then.
Kazakhstan is considering extending President Nazarbayev's powers until 2020. The Kazakh Central Election Commission on Monday voted for the registration of a statement on holding a referendum to extend presidential powers. The Assembly of Kazakh people supported the initiative to hold a referendum.
The opposition, according to the adviser, is not interested in this perspective which would relegate it to the political periphery for the next 10 years. "I think that by 2012, a real unification of all major opposition forces will happen in order to enter parliament," he said.
"For the Nur Otan ruling party, it is extremely important to have an absolute advantage in the future parliament," Yertysbayev said. "It is vitally necessary to get at least 85 out of 100 seats in the Majilis, so that the opposition faction could review the results of the referendum and raise the issue of the legitimacy of the existing government," he added.
Kazakhstan already experienced hosting a referendum to extend the current President's powers: in 1995 the referendum extended Nursultan Nazarbayev's powers until 1999.
The 70-year-old Kazakh president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, is in power for over 20 years. The next presidential elections were to be held in 2012 in which the current and first president planned to nominate his candidacy.
According to legislation, initiators of the referendum should collect at least 200,000 signatures from citizens, equally representing all regions, Astana and Almaty. This comes to at least 12,500 signatures in each region. The initiative group has started the collection of signatures on the day of registration. On Tuesday, December 28, they collected more than 140,000 signatures.
Yertysbayev has no doubt that the initiators of the referendum will collect the required number of signatures. President Nazarbayev, according to him, has the support of an absolute majority of the population, whereas the radical opposition is supported by 10.9 percent of voters. The last presidential elections and numerous sociological studies indicate it.
Yertysbayev attributes the fact that the initiators of the referendum proposed an extension of presidential powers until 2020 to the notion that they probably proceeded on the basis of another 10-year presidential program - the Program of Industrial and Innovation Development of Kazakhstan until 2020.
"It is important form this program to be implemented under Nazarbayev's leadership," he said.
However, considering the legal aspect, the president's powers should be extended either until December 2017, or until December 2022, Yertysbayev considers. The current presidential term expires in December 2012, and the presidential term after the constitutional amendments in 2007 is five years, not seven years, as was previously the case.
"Given the fact that the president is in excellent intellectual and physical form, one should stand on the second date , December 2022," Yertysbayev said.
Several western democratic institutions, for example, OSCE / ODIHR, may criticize the referendum for the extension of powers, he believes.
"However, all Western European countries, the USA and Canada, including China, Japan and India, are interested in a stable Central Asian region," Yertysbayev said. "Stability, reform and modernization, all these are linked with Nursultan Nazarbayev's name.