BAKU, Azerbaijan, Sept.28
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Cumulative oil demand in OPEC countries is set to increase by around 4 mb/d between 2020 and 2045, of which 0.7 mb/d will relate to demand recovery after 2020, Trend reports with reference to OPEC’s World Oil Outlook.
In the longer term, OPEC oil demand will increase from 8.1 mb/d in 2020 to 9.4 mb/d in 2025, then rising to 10.4 mb/d in 2030, 11.1 mb/d in 2035, 11.6 mb/d in 2040 and 12.0 mb/d in 2045.
In the medium term, OPEC oil demand is expected to stand at 8.5 mb/d in 2021, 8.8 mb/d in 2022, 9.0 mb/d in 2023 and 9.2 mb/d in 2024. The growth between 2020 and 2026 will amount to 1.6 mb/d.
OPEC countries are expected to play an important role in shaping future oil demand. Similar to other developing countries, road transportation will be the main source of this increase, contributing 1.7 mb/d to future growth.
Specific to OPEC, particularly in the Middle East, is large incremental demand growth in the petrochemical industry, which is projected to be almost at parity with road transportation. Strong growth in this sector is expected in the medium-term, as several large petrochemical projects come on stream in Saudi Arabia, IR Iran and the UAE. Finally, some demand growth is also set to take place in the aviation and marine bunkers sectors. However, overall demand increases in these sectors is forecast to be limited to a range of 0.2 mb/d for marine bunkers and 0.5 mb/d for the aviation sector. The range of projected demand growth in the Middle East & Africa is comparable to that of China and OPEC, standing at 3.6 mb/d during the entire forecast period. However, considering the relatively low demand base in 2020, the Middle East & Africa (excluding OPEC Member Countries) is the second-fastest growing region in relative terms (2.6 percent p.a. on average), just behind India.
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