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Nomination of one more opposition candidate to help Bakiyev to win elections

Politics Materials 7 May 2009 12:43 (UTC +04:00)

Azerbaijan, Baku, May 6 / Trend , V, Zhavoronkova, E. Ostapenko/ Nomination of one more opposition candidate Temir Sariyev for presidential post in Kyrgyzstan will increase incumbent President Kurmanbek Bakiyev's chances to win elections.

"Sariyev's emergence of in the list of candidates for the presidency finally destroys plans of opposition political forces to remove Kurmanbek Bakiyev and his circles from power," European expert on Central Asia Yuri Fedorov wrote to Trend in email.

On May 4, Kyrgyzstan's opposition Ak-Shumar (White Falcon) party nominated party's leader Temir Sariyev for presidential elections to take place on July 23, Fergana.ru reported.

Until Sariyev's nomination, single opposition candidate Almazbek Atambayev was expected to represent opposition in the elections. Atambayev was nominated at a kurultay (national assembly) by Kyrgyzstan United Popular Movement on April 25. The movement brought together almost all opposition forces of the country on December 24.

Opposition candidates Almazkbek Atambayev and Temir Sariyev have not yet submitted documents to the Central Election Commission (CEC).

The CEC is examining documents of 8 individuals willing to run for president. They are incumbent President Kurmanbek Bakiyev, Former Defense Minister Ismayil Isakov, famous narcologist Zhenishbek Nazaraliyev, Kuttubek Asillbekov, Akbarali Aytikeyev, "mine king" Nurlan Motuyev, Murat Borombayev and Almaz Parmanov.

Experts say the opposition would have more chances to win if it nominated only one candidate as it was planned originally.

"Of course, it would be better for opposition to act as a unified bloc," independent Kyrgyz political scientist Orozbek Moldaliyev told Trend over telephone from Bishkek.

Greater part of population is dissatisfied with country's incumbent president. The opposition staged mass protest actions and offered Bakiyev to step down voluntarily and hold snap elections.

United Popular Movement claimed that Bakiyev allegedly could not become guarantee for Constitution, rights and freedoms of citizens and he led the country to hard economic situation.

However, nomination of one more opposition candidate consolidates current president's position.

"Undoubtedly, Sariyev's nomination meets Bakiyev's interests," research fellow at the London-based Chatham House Royal Institute of International Affairs Federov said.

He said opposition's only chance is to focus all protest votes on a single opposition candidate. The protest votes can turn out to be much more than expected.

The second candidate can gain part of electorate and consolidate Bakiyev's chances.

"The emergence of a second, relatively strong candidate from the opposition first of all diverts votes from opposition supporters for Almazbek Atambayev, the only opposition candidate as was planned, Fedorov said.

He said career of opposition candidate Sariyev is typical for Central Asian political figures who will be supported by voters.

"Sariyev is not a freshman in Kyrgyz political arena and has huge financial resources under local criteria," Fedorov said.

Experts say he can win part of votes of those who will vote against Bakiyev.

"I think Sariyev will certainly gain public support," Kyrgyz political scientist Nur Omarov told Trend over telephone from Bishkek.

Another negative impact of nomination of a second candidate is that it complicates organizing protest actions after elections as opposition politicians and their supporters will hesitate which candidate to announce true winner - Sariyev or Atambayev, Fedorov said.

Both candidates rely on support of the same regions where they are from, the fact which aggravates struggle between them. 

Single opposition candidate Atambayev has some shortcoming as presidential candidate, Moldaliyev said.

The population has certain distrust to him as in recent past he withdrew from opposition and worked prime minister for Bakiyev's government. He also promised to become 'a bridge" between opposition and authorities. But he did not keep promise, Moldaliyev said.

Doctor of History and Professor of Political Science Omarov said despite authority of opposition candidates, President Bakiyev is most likely to win elections and opposition is less likely to won over him.

"Obviously, the head of the state holds leading position in president race," Omarov said. "The reality is that all financial, political and administrative resource of the republic stands behind Bakiyev."

Besides, Bakiyev is native of Jalalabad province in south of the country which accounts for larger part of its political support, Fedorov said.

Omarov said fairness of election also plays an important role.

"The main point is that the key problem in Kyrgyzstan and in majority of former soviet countries is not how voters will vote, but how votes will be counted," he said.

Omarov said the CEC works to serve interests of the only government candidate which indicates "sad experience" gained during years of independence.

The CEC decision will be crucial after elections and it can be easily predicted today, Omarov said.

"I think overwhelming majority of votes will be counted in favor of government's candidate, that is, in favor of Bakiyev by various methods," he said.

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