ASTANA, Kazakhstan, March 4. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts 5.2 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth for Kazakhstan in 2025 and forecasts 4.5 percent in 2026, according to the latest forecast from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), Trend reports.
According to the EBRD, the inflation rate in Kazakhstan reached
8.9 percent in January 2025, driven by sustained demand pressures,
including on the back of a fiscal stimulus, and the weakening of
the tenge in the last quarter of 2024. This prompted the National
Bank of Kazakhstan to increase the policy rate by 100 basis points
to 15.25 percent in November 2024 and keep the rate unchanged in
the latest decision in January 2025, signaling the monetary
authorities’ commitment to contain price increases amid rising
inflation expectations.
The government continues to run a budget deficit because of lower
revenue mobilization and elevated expenditures. GDP growth is
projected to accelerate to 5.2 percent in 2025, helped by the
planned expansion of the Tengiz oil field, before slowing down to
4.5 percent in 2026.