DUSHANBE, Tajikistan, March 4. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts Tajikistan's real GDP growth to reach seven percent in 2025, Trend reports.
Meanwhile, growth is expected to slow slightly to 5.7 percent in 2026. The growth is driven by continued investment in key infrastructure projects.
The EBRD notes that Tajikistan's economy showed strong performance in 2024, with real GDP growing by 8.4 percent in the first three quarters. Both private and public investments expanded, particularly due to the construction of the Rogun hydroelectric power plant (HPP) and other infrastructure developments.
Price controls have been effective in keeping inflation low and at 3.6 percent in December 2024, which is in line with the central bank's target range of six percent ± 2 percent.
According to the EBRD, the current account likely remained in surplus in 2024 due to strong remittance inflows, and international reserves have increased. The fiscal deficit is expected to stay under control, in line with the IMF's Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) program. The IMF approved the first review of the PCI in December 2024, with most targets met.
The data from Tajikistan's Ministry of Economic Development and Trade shows that the country's GDP will surpass 150 billion somoni ($13.7 billion) in 2024, with a real growth rate of 8.4 percent.