BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 14. Azerbaijan’s combined international reserves and assets held by the State Oil Fund (SOFAZ) are expected to reach $74 billion by the end of 2025, or 98.4% of GDP, Trend reports.
Fitch forecasts that SOFAZ assets will stabilize at around $62 billion (79.3% of GDP) over 2025–2026, based on an assumed average oil price of $65 per barrel.
The agency estimates that Azerbaijan’s net external assets will average 67% of GDP during that period — significantly higher than the median for both 'BBB' and even 'A' rated sovereigns.
Despite a projected decline in oil prices, Fitch expects Azerbaijan’s current account to remain in surplus: 5.3% of GDP in 2025 and 4.9% in 2026. By comparison, the average surplus over 2021–2024 stood at 15.6%, while the 'BBB' median is just 0.4%. The report also points to potential upside in oil exports from the development of the Karabakh field and prospective onshore shale projects over the medium to long term.
However, starting in 2025, Fitch expects the state budget to slip into deficit, citing “pressure on oil revenues, elevated — though gradually declining — capital spending related to Karabakh reconstruction, as well as increased defense and social expenditures.” Still, the agency notes that the outlook could improve if non-oil revenues exceed projections or if capital spending comes in lower than expected.