BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 14. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher early Friday, with the market bracing for potential fallout after Israel launched a preemptive strike on Iran — a reversal of the dynamics seen in previous flare-ups between the two nations, Trend reports.
Rystad Energy’s Head of Geopolitical Analysis Jorge Leon said in a market update that, “Israel’s strike is a shift in regional dynamics and has pushed the oil risk premium to $8 per barrel. The market is closely watching Iran’s response. In the unlikely scenario of Iran disrupting flows through the Strait of Hormuz, we could see a significant supply shock with oil prices rising sharply.”
Unlike previous incidents where Iran initiated hostilities and Israel responded, this time Israel took the first step — a move analysts believe could significantly influence how markets perceive the risk of further escalation.
Jorge Leon pointed out that the Strait of Hormuz remains the critical flashpoint. Roughly 12 million barrels per day of crude oil transit the narrow waterway, over 80% of which is destined for Asia. Including refined petroleum products, the total throughput can reach 20 million barrels daily. While regional producers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE possess pipeline infrastructure to partially bypass the strait — namely, the East-West and Habshan-Fujairah pipelines — their combined capacity covers only about half of current flows.
He recalled that although Iran has previously threatened to close the Strait, it has never carried out a full blockade. Past tactics have included GPS jamming and tanker harassment, raising navigational risks without fully halting exports. The strait is jointly administered with Oman, and any Iranian attempt at disruption would likely provoke strong international backlash — not just from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, but also from oil-importing countries like China.
Analysts view a complete shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz as unlikely, but the mere possibility contributes to elevated volatility and underscores the importance of geopolitical developments in shaping global energy markets.
On the morning of June 13, Israel carried out airstrikes against Iran, resulting in the deaths of numerous high-ranking military officials, including Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces Mohammad Hossein Bagheri. Among those killed were also several members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including IRGC Commander-in-Chief Hossein Salami, Commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters Gholam Ali Rashid, six nuclear scientists, and other senior figures.
That same evening, Iran responded with Operation “True Promise 3”, launching more than 150 ballistic missiles and over 100 drones toward Tel Aviv and other areas. The retaliation caused civilian casualties and widespread destruction.