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Review of monetary sector in azerbaijan (January-August 2010)

Analysis Materials 12 October 2010 11:07 (UTC +04:00)

Pre-crisis measures taken by the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA), as well as effective package of measures to enhance financial stability enabled to achieve one of the main goals - financial stability.

Unlike most countries, the cases of bankruptcy or financial disasters were not observed in the banking sector of Azerbaijan. Preventive measures by the Central Bank allowed the country's banking sector to be prepared to the global crisis.

Due to this, during the crisis, the banking sector had no problems with the implementation of obligations before contractors. The banking system continues to successfully carry out its primary function - that is a function of financial intermediation, demonstrating stable growth dynamics.

The growth of deposits once again testifies the high public confidence in the banking sector. The exchange rate of manat in relevant to major convertible currencies was protected from devaluation, which ultimately prevented the rise in prices, reduction of welfare and impairment of deposits.

Currency market and manat rate

In 2010, the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) continues its policy in terms of a slow recovery of global economic growth, uneven running in the world, increasing the instability in international financial and currency markets, maintaining favorable conjuncture for oil market and stabile growth dynamics of the economy. During the post-crisis period, the country will also need a stable manat to accelerate economic development and eliminate the consequences of the crisis.
In terms of sharp volatility of the world's leading currencies, rate of manat has changed at 0.04 percent against the U.S. dollar, and in general remained at a stable level. Fundamental macroeconomic factor of the stability of rate of the manat against the U.S. dollar was a significant balance of payments surplus. Stable exchange rate of manat, as before, in the first half of this year allowed to prevent the growth of inflation, external debt obligations of economic entities, dollarization, and, in general, to maintain the real incomes of the population.
In August official exchange rate of the national currency with regards to dollar rose by 4 points. The rate of dollar rose from 0.8034 manat per USD to 0.8038 per USD.

The exchange rate of dollar changed by dropping, but fluctuated strongly. Maximal rate was fixed in 0.8039 manat per USD on Aug. 24 and minimal at 0.8033 on Aug. 4. The margin rate between the maximum and minimum figure was 6 points.

Rate of euro rose in Azerbaijan in August. The currency rate fell by 341 points (from 1.0511 manat per euro to 1.0170 manat to euro). Monthly minimum rate was 1.0158 euro per manat was fixed on Aug. 24, monthly maximum rate was 1.0671 euro per manat marked on Aug. 9. Fluctuation between maximal and minimum significance made up 513 points.

On results of trades in currency section on tool USD/AZN_TOD Baku Interbank Currency Exchange (Baki Banklararasi Valyuta Birjasi - BBVB) defined five banks - leading operators of exchange market of hard currency on August 2010, BBVB reported.

Joint-Stock Commercial Bank "ASB" has headed five bank-leaders of exchange currency market in accordance with shares of transactions concluded by him. "UniBank", "AccessBank", "AGBank" and "Yapi Kredi Bank Azerbaijan" also included in the number of the leading dealers of organized currency market. In accordance with it below is the list of banks - the leading operators of exchange market of hard currency in August 2010.

Banks Of the total (%)
ASB 59.11%
UNIBANK 17.69%
AccessBank 8.29%
AGBank 3.87%
Yapi Kredi Bank Azerbaijan 3.45%

Deals of the Azerbaijani Central Bank are not indicated
In total 13 banks have taken part in the trades of currency section of the BBVB in August 2010. In accounting month in "Bourse E-System of Trades" (BEST) 44 trading sessions are conducted and 35 transactions are registered.
The total volume of trades of currency section in accounting month on USD/AZN has made 48,424 million manats or $60,186 millions. And also the turnover on tool
Swap_USD/AZN_TOD_1Week has made 19,345 million manats or 24.0 millions in dollar equivalent. The average rate of dollar to manat on this tool has made 0.8061 manats.
In comparison with indicators of June in accounting month the total volume of trades in currency section has grown on 40.5 million manat. The average daily turnover in "Bourse E-System of Trades" on USD/AZN reached approximately $ 2.736 millions, then that the average volume of each transaction has made $ 1.720 millions.
The exchange rate of national currency on tool USD/AZN_TOD in accounting month has decreased on 0.05% from 0.8035 to 0.8039 for $1. Thus the US dollar average rate in consideration to manat has made in August 0.8036 manat for $1, against 0.8026 manat following the July results of current year.
Monetary market

Amid essential tendencies of economic cycle, with regard to maintain the business activity and economic growth the CBA maintained parameters of percentage corridor, obligatory norms of reserving, sources of increasing money mass.

The Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) noted the increase in money supply (M2) by 2.2 percent in August and 32.1 percent compared to August 2009, the CBA reported. So, as of late August, the rate of M2 was 6,892 billion manat compared to 7,569.1 billion as of Sept.1 2009.
The amount of cash money supply (M0) in late August hit 4,850.8 billion manat compared to 4,811.4 billion manat as of late July and 3,651.9 million manat as of Sept.1, 2009.
As of late August, Broad Money Supply (M3) totaled 9,054.5 billion manat compared to 9,315 billion manat compared to 9,054.5 billion manat as of late July and 7,569.1 billion manat as of Sept.1, 2009.
The transaction money (M1) amounted to 5,803.9 billion manat compared to 5,756.5 billion manat as of late July and 4,550.3 million manat as of Sept.1, 2009.
Parameters of monetary market, in mln manat

Volume, 01.08.2010
Money mass in extensive understating (М3) 9315
Money mass on manat (М2) 7046.6
Cash in manat (М0) 4850.8
Non-cash in manat 2195.8

Loan market

Azerbaijani banks increased lending to the economy of Azerbaijan by 1,5 percent in August 2010 and by 15,2 percent compared to the same period of 2009.

As of late August, 2010 the banks provided loans totaling 8.788.6 million manat (including 5.448.7 million manat in national currency and 3.339.9 million in hard currency) compared to 8.656.2 million manat (5.357.6 million manat in national currency and 3.293.6 million manat in hard currency), about 7.629.8 million manat (4.245,7 million manat and 3.384.2 million manat) as of Sept.1, 2009.

In August 2010, the share of loans provided in national currency was 62 percent, in foreign currency - 38 percent.
Of the total portfolio, loans worth 423.7 million manat were overdue compared to 400 million manat as of August 1, about 274.9 million manat as of Sept.1, 2009. Statistics of overdue loans does not include similar loans of non-bank credit institution Aqrarkredit.

Short-term loans as of late August amounted to 2.445.8 million manat compared to 2.401.5 million manat as of late July, about 2.133.3 million manat as of Sept.1, 2009. In August the amount of short-term credit in the economy increased by 1.8 percent but 14.6 percent compared to August 2009.

Long-term loans amounted to 6.342.7 million manat compared to 6.249.7 million manat as of August 1, about 5.496.6 million manat as of Sept.1, 2009. In August the amount of long-term loans increased by 1.5 percent, compared to August 2009 - by 15.4 percent.

As of late August, the only state bank of the country (the International Bank of Azerbaijan) granted loans totaling 3865,8 million manat with a specific weight of 44 percent (increased by 1 percent in August), and private banks - 4740,6 million manat with a specific weight of 53,9 percent (increased by 2.1 percent). The remaining 2.1 percent fall on the share of non-bank credit organizations, which received loans worth 182.2 million manat.

As of Sept.1 the average rate on bank credit of Azerbaijani economy in national currency amounted to 15.85 percent compared to 14.86 percent Aug. 1, 15.34 percent Sept 1, 2009, the Central Bank said.

The average rate on bank lending in hard currency was 17.39 percent compared to 17.53 percent and 15.48 percent respectively.

At the beginning of Sept. the average interest rate on bank lending entity in national currency amounted to 14.29 percent compared to 14.37 percent Aug. 1, 12.48 percent Sept. 1, 2009. The average rate on bank loans to corporate clients in hard currency was 14.75 percent compared to
14.70 percent Aug. 1, 12.71 percent Sept.1, 2009.

During the reporting period, the average rate on bank lending to a physical entity in national currency amounted to 19.49 percent compared to 19.61 percent Aug. 1 and 20.68 percent Sept.1,
2009. The average rate on bank loans for individual clients in hard currency was 22.93 percent compared to 23.26 percent and 22.76 percent respectively.

Banking sector

In August, the deposit base of Azerbaijani banks increased by 4.3 percent, but by 6.4 percent compared to August 2009.

According to the CBA, in late July the total amount of bank deposits and deposits of legal and physical entities amounted to 4589,4 million manat compared to 4.401.4 million manat in late June, about 4.314.6 million manat - in early September 2009. About 2.029.4 million manat fell to manat funds, and 2.560 million manat - the currency.

In July deposits of physical entities increased by 0.2 percent, while the amount of legal entities' deposits - by 10.9 percent. Compared to August 2009, deposits of individual customers increased by 34.3 percent and corporate deposits reduced by 18.4 percent.
As of late August, the amount of physical entities' deposits in the banks amounted to 2.720.8 million manat compared to 2.716.3 million manat as of late July, 2.025.6 million manat as of September 1, 2009.
As of late August, the amount of legal entities' deposits totaled 1.868.6 million manat compared to 1.685.1 million manat as of late July, 2.289 million manat as of September 1, 2009.

Average rate on deposits in manat as of Sept.1 2010 amounted to 10.99 percent compared to 11.69 percent as of Aug.1, 11.61 percent as of Jan.1, 2009.

Average rate on deposits in foreign currencies amounted to 10.57 percent compared to 11.89 percent and 9.56 percent, respectively.

As of Sept.1, the average rate on deposits of individuals in manat was 12.09 percent compared to 12.68 percent as of Aug.1, 12.92 percent as of Sept.1, 2009. Average rate on deposits from individual customers in foreign currencies amounted to 12.11 percent compared to 12.52 percent and 12.30percent, respectively

As of early August, the average rate on deposits of legal entities in manat was 6.14 percent compared to 6.88 percent as of Aug.1, 8.26 percent as of Sept.1, 2009. Average rate on deposits from corporate clients in foreign currency amounted to 5.66 percent compared to 6.01 percent and 4.85 percent respectively.

The number of profitable banks in Azerbaijan decreased to 29 in August. The figure decreased by one bank from July and is nine banks less than during the same period in 2009, the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) reported.

Total profit in the banking sector declined by almost 56. percent compared to August 2009, and increased by 11.7 percent compared to the previous month to 81.17 million manat.

The number of unprofitable banks increased by one, and by 10 units compared to August 2009. As a result, a loss of 18 banks amounted to 33.79 million manat, which is 52.6 percent more than the July index and almost 3.76 times higher than during the same period in 2009.

Bank Financial Results (After Tax) in million manat:
Periods The number of banks operating profitably The total profit of the banking system (on profitable banks) The number of banks operating in loss The total loss of the banking system (on unprofitable banks) Total profit (+) or loss (-) obtained by banks
01-09-2008 36 167.97 9 14.72 153.25
01-09-2009 38 195.67 8 8.98 186.69
01-09-2010 29 114.96 18 33.79 81.17

Stock market
There is the increase in activity and dynamic operations on Azerbaijani stock market compared to the last year, the Azerbaijani State Securities Committee said.
The pace of growth in corporate securities exceeded last year's ones by 2-3 times.
He said that the main innovations on the market are aimed at improving operations and market infrastructure.

The Baku Stock Exchange and National Depository Centre changed software in mid-2009. The integration of new software has allowed financial intermediaries - brokers and dealers to get remote access to electronic systems of both participants on this market. This was the first stage of the concept. The second phase involves an interface between the billing system of the Central Bank and Stock Exchange trading system using advanced model of an integrated system.

Automation of exchange trade and accounts of post-trading and clearing system is underway. Connecting the payment systems to this platform will end soon.

Leasing and microfinance companies issuing corporate bonds are very active this year compared to last year.

Two new marketing tools are being prepared. New regulations will be submitted to the public to implement these tools in the nearest future.

Their placing on the market depends on demand and supply, and as a result of enlightenment measures held by the SSC, it is possible to place these tools.

Lately as a result of positive dynamic in profitably of state bonds these tools have become more intensive.
The total turnover of transactions on all instruments in January-August 2010 amounted to 1.177 billion manat. The corporate securities market increased by 21.6 percent over the same period last year, amounting to 286.4 million manat. It is explained by the increased volume of transactions in corporate bonds by 2.4 times. The number of transactions also increased by 2.4 times up to 149.
The state securities market reduced by 65 percent, reaching 890.47 million manat. It occurred under the influence of cut in repo-operation by 3.4 times, though the number of deals reduced inconsiderably (by 6.9 percent).

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