BISHKEK, Kyrgyzstan, March 11. The electricity consumption in Kyrgyzstan is expected to average 50.9 billion kWh by 2050, Trend reports via the draft of Kyrgyzstan's National Development Program for 2030.
Electricity demand is forecasted to grow at an average rate of 3-6 percent per year, reaching 23-27 billion kWh by 2030.
According to the program, the country's energy system relies heavily on hydropower, with hydropower plants representing 85-90 percent of total electricity production.
The majority of production comes from the Toktogul cascade of hydropower plants on the Naryn River, which poses risks of limited generation during unfavorable climatic conditions. The Naryn River, home to the key plants, is sensitive to climate change, temperature fluctuations, and rainfall levels. Seasonal variations in water inflows to the Toktogul reservoir could undermine energy stability.
Meanwhile, 65-67 percent of generating capacities were installed before Kyrgyzstan gained independence. Given the average lifespan of coal power plants at 65 years, parts of the Bishkek and Osh thermal power plants are expected to reach the end of their operational lifespan in 2027 and 2031, respectively. Transmission losses reach 15 percent due to aging power grids and outdated equipment.
The program notes that in 2023, electricity consumption exceeded generation by 3.3 billion kWh, which is 19 percent of total production.
At a Ministry of Energy board meeting on February 26, Kyrgyzstan's Energy Minister Taalaibek Ibraev reported that total electricity consumption for 2024 reached 18.3 billion kWh, with 12.77 billion kWh generated by hydroelectric plants and 1.76 billion kWh produced by thermal power plants. Additionally, 3.63 billion kWh of electricity was imported, and private small hydroelectric stations generated 156.2 million kWh, while solar plants produced 0.17 million kWh.
A discussion on the draft of Kyrgyzstan’s National Development Program for 2030 took place on March 6, 2025, and work on the program is ongoing. The National Program will define the key areas for the country’s future development, including industrialization, transportation infrastructure, digitalization, and addressing ecological, cultural, and social policy issues.