BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 3. The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) has revised its global oil supply forecast, predicting a growth of 410,000 barrels per day (kb/d) in 2024 and a more substantial increase of 2.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025, assuming OPEC+ production returns as planned, Trend reports.
This month, OIES has adjusted its analysis by breaking down global crude oil supply into OPEC+ producers, including OPEC (12) and non-OPEC (10) participants in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC), and non-OPEC+ producers. The forecast also incorporates the recent decision by eight OPEC+ members to extend their voluntary production cuts of 2.2 mb/d until the end of November 2024. The cuts will be phased out gradually from December 2024 through November 2025.
As a result of this extension, OIES has reduced its global oil supply forecast by 90 kb/d for 2024 and 320 kb/d for 2025. OPEC+ crude is expected to increase by 1.5 mb/d in 2025, driven primarily by OPEC producers (+1.37 mb/d), following a 1.1 mb/d contraction in 2024. Russia, Iraq, and Kazakhstan have submitted compensation plans for 2.6 mb/d of overproduced volumes, pledging to rectify the excess by September 2025, which could limit OPEC+ production growth in 2025.
Meanwhile, non-OPEC+ crude growth is projected to slow to 820 kb/d in 2024 and 1 mb/d in 2025, down from 1.6 mb/d in 2023. US crude production is expected to grow by 250-300 kb/d in both years, significantly lower than the 1.1 mb/d growth seen in 2023. Global natural gas liquids (NGLs) and other liquids are forecasted to grow by 680 kb/d in 2024, with a more modest increase of 170 kb/d in 2025.
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