Azerbaijan, Baku, Feb. 4 /corr. Trend E.Tariverdiyeva, A.Tinayev
/ The Government of Kyrgyzstan made a decision to close American military base
in Manas, the President of Kyrgyzstan, Kurmanbek Bakiyev, said to press
conference as a result of talks in Moscow.
The airbase was launched in December 2001 by the UN mandate to support
coalition forces in antiterrorist operation "Indestructible Freedom" in Afghanistan.
Currently more than thousand soldiers of the USA, and also military transport
aircrafts are located in Manas.
Question: What is your attitude towards possible closing of the U.S. military base in Manas in Kyrgyzstan?
The correspondents of Trend asked experts and political scientists this question to obtain commentaries.
Alexander Knyazev, director of regional branch of Institute of CIS countries in Bishkek, Doctor of historical sciences:
- I see no future problems in the relations of Kyrgyzstan and the United States. Everything will be good - if, of course, further policy of our President will be sequential. In any event, I do not think that America will go to the open conflict with us. Now such a situation occurred in the world that weak states need to adjoin the strong allies, moreover to adhere to the made choice. It is natural that Russia and USA are competitors, and for us it was simply necessary to select someone for the stronger co-operation. Benefits from the partnership with the USA were little for us - mainly everything came to the practice periods of our specialists and to any kind of consultations. We see real support only from Russia.
Dmitry Rogozin, permanent representative of Russia to NATO:
- On the eve of today's meeting within the Collective
Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the Kirghiz and Russian Presidents spoke
of the growth of political and war efforts for ensuring the protection of our
states from the external threats, in connection with which the Kirghiz side informed the Russian side that they no longer want to work with the Americans.
In 2006 information appeared that the USA intends to place in Manas its aircraft
of distant radar armament with AWACS, which are unfit for combating Taliban,
who do not have their aircraft, since it firstly reveals flight vehicles.
Therefore the placement of AWACS was dictated by the desire to spy upon the
neighbors in the region, who have their aviation, including Russian Federation.
As a result, if the decision is made officially, the base will be closed in six months. This puts the United States before the question on how they will support their group in Afghanistan. Still there are not concrete agreements on further use of Manas. But now the session of CSTO takes place, key question at which is the creation of the forces of quick reacting. The countries of Central Asia and Russia feel that the failure of Western coalition forces in Afghanistan can lead to a sharp increase in the military threats from this region, which will be directed against our states. Therefore, the need appears for this group. Undoubtedly the military potential, which CSTO members possess, will be required for this. I think that the Manas base can be useful for us, when the Americans will leave it.
Temir Sariyev, leader of Kyrgyzstan's opposition Ak-Shumkar Party:
- The time will tell us how this decision is correct. Still we, as a small country, must keep balance with all.
Now Kyrgyzstan joined Russia, and made this for several reasons. First, we are located on the face of
default, economic and financial crises. The decrease in power
engineering has reached its peak for already long, and I think unlikely it will
be better.
With other words, now the country simply risks to be bankrupt. Secondly, the
profit part of the budget has not fulfilled. Accordingly, the leadership of the
Republic searches the ways of resolving the situation. In this case, the
President laid all hopes on the Russian Federation.
Here due to this I appear doubts. Mainly
because we obtain much larger financing from America, than from Russia: through different grants, credits, yes through the same base! But now we will
apparently lose all these.
Furthermore, I am concerned by the following: obtaining easy money from
Medvedev, our leadership can so easily spend them on unknown, indeed still we
have problems with the transparency of budget ... Therefore, I have all grounds
to fear that 30- 40 percent of the obtained means will be spent ineffectively.
Stanislav Pritchin, Russian expert on CIS countries:
- The talks on base have not completed yet. Closing the bases, Kyrgyzstan really harms its reputation and no one will make any deal with it in future. Even if the question will be settled, the base will function for six months under the agreement. During this period, the president's order can be sabotaged by the government. Taking into account that strongest non-governmental organizations are in Kyrgyzstan, the Manas issue will also bring instability into the country.
It is necessary for the United States to have a base in Middle Asia, especially now when President Obama called Afghanistan as a priority for the new Administration. Part of the base will be redirected to Almaty, but this will be covertly, since Kazakhstan does not will to quarrel with Russia. As a matter of fact, Almaty simply promised the United Stated to hold the transshipment. Of course, some contingent will be maintained in the airport.
One of the most predictable variant will be Uzbekistan which is recently becoming biased towards the West. However, the most important base will be a huge military base in Turkmenistan which is more reasonable for transportation of cargo from Europe than Manas.
Marat Kazakhbayev, Kirghiz political scientist:
- I think that Manas base could operate further and the United States would continue to transfer money to our treasury. But the President was subjected to a strong pressure from Russia. His decision contrasts with our national interests. He had an opportunity to act differently, but this demanded a strong political will.
Of course, the assistance that Medvedev promised to Bakiyev is directly connected with the policy or more precisely with geopolitical confrontation between Russia and the United States. However, I am sure that the United States will not withdraw its airbase from Manas. We still have to make consultation at the level of civil and military specialists of the USA.
Tofig Abbasov, Azerbaijani expert of analytical group of Media-Holding Lider:
- Thesituation with the development of foreign policy vector by Bishkek shows that in fact, there are still dependent countries in the post-Soviet territory. Moscow and Washington are quarreling over these countries. Looking at Kyrgyz realities, we observe an obvious market initiated by Bakiyev who doesn't conceal that he wants to fruitfully realize a beneficial spatial position and enlist the same reliable support from outside.
Approval of the U.S. positions in Kyrgyzstan would noticeably damage Russian
interests, since Moscow, involving Bishkek in the CSTO, EurAzEC, did nothing to
activate the economic segment of the country. However, the United States was ready to remove this problem.
Now, Moscow could "purchase" cheapening stocks of the Kyrgyz economy for $2
billion. In terns of extending crisis, this loan pack can become a saver for
Bishkek and would also give Bakiyev indispensable carte blanche.
The Kremlin's move became simultaneously a stop-light also for "the revolution of tulips". In this manner, the third orange wave couldn't work wonders of democracy in the post-Soviet territory. However, this was of no small importance for Moscow to confront with Washington.
Now the question is whether Bakiyev rationally use the loan pack in the interests to upgrade the infrastructure. The fate of the Kyrgyz party which is played by Moscow and Washington will hinge on this.
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