Azerbaijan, Baku, May 8 / Trend , E.Tariverdiyeva/
The current political crisis in Georgia will not lead to change of the authorities, but the government must hold a dialogue with opposition to stop further strengthening of unrest.
"I think it remains unlikely that we will see a change of government in Georgia due to the opposition demonstrations," professor at University of Columbia Mitchell wrote to Trend via email.
It has been a month that the Georgian opposition is seeking to remove President Saakashvili from his post. The first demonstration of opposition took place on April 9. Within the month, the opposition held mass demonstrations in the streets of Tbilisi, and on May 5, the Georgian Interior Ministry announced a military rebellion in one of the armored parts not far from Tbilisi.
The commander of the Muhrovani military base, some officers and civilians were arrested. According to the Georgian authorities, the rebellion began, when the plot on coup d'etat and assassination attempt on the Georgian president's life was revealed. Tbilisi believes that the organizers of the failed military coup d'etat were going to implement it prior to the NATO exercises in Georgia, which started on May 6.
On May 6, the NATO exercises "Cooperative Lanceray / Cooperative Longbou-2009" / Cooperative Lancer / Cooperative Longbow-2009 "/ began in Georgia as part of the Alliance program on "Partnership for Peace". According to the Georgian Defense Ministry, 9 NATO member countries and four countries participating in the program "Partnership for Peace" attended the exercises.
Experts believe the current political situation in Georgia can exacerbate the crisis of power in the country, but this will not lead to a change of government.
The government is less likely to change in Georgia soon, American expert on Georgia Lincoln Mitchell said.
Mitchell said the current situation can be described as a low level crisis. It has the potential to develop into a bigger crisis.
"Both the government and opposition should work to avoid that," the expert said. "Not just through dialog but by actions on both sides."
The current situation is dangerous and quite similar to events that led up to the Georgia-Russia war in 2008 in many respects, European Expert on the South Caucasus Amanda Akcakoca believes.
The government is struggling to maintain control over the country amid ongoing protests and dissent within the military, she said. It is extremely dangerous for the country and the region, the expert believes.
Akcakoca said the NATO exercises, increasing Russian military build-up and alleged coup have added to the political unrest.
However, Akcakoca said even the strengthened political crisis will hardly lead to fulfillment of the opposition's main demands.
"Frankly I would doubt, that in the short term at least, there will be any change in Georgia's leadership," Expert of the European Centre for Policy (Belgium) Akcakoca wrote to Trend in an email.
However, Georgian Political Scientist Gia Khukhashvili is not sure in the future scenario of events. As to whether the opposition can achieve its goal and make the president resign, Khukhashvili cannot answer, because, he said it is difficult to predict further developments.
All experts consider it is necessary to establish a dialogue between the authorities and the opposition to overcome this long-standing confrontation between the two sides.
He said goals of Georgian opposition are not realistic. "Better goal would be not a change of government but for the current government to change," Mitchell said.
He said the dialogue between government and opposition is important and healthy, but it is not sufficient. "The government needs to support dialog with concrete actions which should be the fruits of the dialogue," Mitchell said.
"The crisis still exists and nothing has been really taken to solve problems," Khukhashvili said to Trend .
He said it is possible to overcome a political crisis in the country, if a real dialogue begins between the government and society.
"It will be useful, if the authorities take real steps toward dialogue," Khukhashvili said.
V. Zhavoronkova contributed to this article.
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Possible further strengthened unrest in Georgia not to lead to change in leadership: experts
