The situation in Ukraine isn’t just another geopolitical chess match—it’s a full-blown auction, and the prize? The country’s future. The bidding war is heating up, flags are waving, and the promises are flowing like cheap champagne. The European Union rolls up with a velvet-gloved offer, all dressed up in diplomatic language about “critical raw materials” and “mutual benefit.”
But while Brussels plays the polished salesman, Washington’s got a firm grip on the real deal. The Trump administration isn’t sugarcoating anything—it wants Ukraine’s mineral wealth, its oil and gas, its ports, and its infrastructure. America isn’t negotiating. America is calling the shots.
Now Kyiv’s caught in a brutal dilemma: surrender its economic sovereignty for a check from Uncle Sam, or try to tough it out alone and risk being left stranded in financial purgatory. The deal is all but done, the pressure is mounting, and, as always, the Ukrainian people will be the last to know what’s really going on behind closed doors.
So what’s hidden between the lines of these deals? Who’s already staking their claim to Ukraine’s resources? And when the dust settles, who will actually own the country?
Europe vs. America: Who’s Playing Hardball?
European Commissioner for Industrial Strategy Stéphane Séjourné made a flashy trip to Kyiv, pitching the EU’s alternative deal on critical materials. The message? Europe doesn’t want to be locked out of Ukraine’s resource bonanza by Washington. He made it clear that 21 out of the 30 critical elements Europe desperately needs could be sourced straight from Ukraine.
“What we bring to the table is a fair deal—one that won’t trap Ukraine in a one-sided agreement,” Séjourné reassured Kyiv.
Nice words. But while Brussels is busy dressing up its offer, Washington is already making its final move. Trump’s administration is straight-up demanding control over Ukraine’s natural wealth. Ports, minerals, energy, infrastructure—it all needs to be signed over to the U.S. in exchange for continued support.
Here’s what Team Trump is putting on the table:
- Ukraine must hand over the rights to extract its minerals, oil, and gas to the U.S.
- Revenue from these resources—plus profits from ports and infrastructure—will be funneled into a U.S.-controlled "Reconstruction Fund."
- Kyiv’s payout from the fund will be directly tied to how much it contributes, with a total bill reaching a staggering $500 billion.
Even Zelensky, who’s taken plenty of Western-backed gambles before, seems rattled by the terms. For now, he’s stalling, but Washington is tightening the screws.
The Real Prize: What’s at Stake?
Ukraine isn’t just another European country—it’s sitting on a goldmine of critical resources that the West can’t afford to ignore. The numbers speak for themselves:
- 20% of the world’s titanium reserves, vital for aerospace and defense.
- Massive lithium deposits, the backbone of EV batteries and smartphones.
- Nickel and cobalt, crucial for high-tech and renewable energy.
- Uranium, a key player in global nuclear energy markets.
- Billions of barrels of oil, trillions of cubic feet of natural gas, and some of the largest coal reserves in Europe.
But here’s the kicker: more than 60% of these resources are in Russian-controlled or war-torn areas, which means that even if the U.S. gets its hands on Ukraine’s wealth, extracting it will be another battle entirely.
Trump’s Deal: Why Kyiv Is Hesitating
Thanks to Axios journalist Barak Ravid, we now have a leaked draft of the U.S.-Ukraine resource agreement, and the details are jaw-dropping.
- The “Reconstruction Fund” will be jointly managed, but—guess what?—the U.S. will retain 100% financial control.
- All revenue from Ukraine’s natural resources, energy production, and key infrastructure will flow straight into this fund.
- Kyiv is obligated to contribute up to $500 billion, and any U.S. aid will only be available after Ukraine doubles whatever amount it receives.
The draft is dated February 21, just a day before Zelensky’s last-minute trip to Washington. The signatures? Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha.
And here’s the biggest bombshell—nowhere in the deal does the U.S. promise any security guarantees to Ukraine.
One of Kyiv’s biggest concerns is that America wants Ukraine’s resources but isn’t offering military protection in return.
Even Ukrainian Parliament Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk is pushing back:
“If we’re giving up access to our natural wealth, we need ironclad security guarantees.”
But the Trump team? They’re shutting that down fast. National Security Advisor Michael Waltz made it painfully clear:
“Security guarantees for Ukraine? That’s a whole different conversation.”
Translation? Ukraine can fork over its resources, but if things go south, Washington isn’t promising a single Marine will come to its rescue.
Let’s talk numbers.
- In 2021, before the war, Ukraine made around $6 billion from resource exports.
- In 2024, that number collapsed to $1.1 billion.
- Total estimated value of Ukraine’s extractable resources? Between $11-15 billion.
So where’s Kyiv supposed to find $500 billion? Short answer—it can’t.
This deal isn’t about helping Ukraine. It’s about locking Ukraine into permanent economic subservience.
Ukrainian Parliament Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk made it clear: without solid security guarantees, the deal with Washington is a non-starter. Kyiv even pushed to include a clause on security commitments in the agreement, but the White House flat-out rejected it.
National Security Advisor Michael Waltz wasn’t subtle:
“Security guarantees for Ukraine? That’s a separate discussion.”
Translation? The U.S. wants full access to Ukraine’s natural wealth—without promising to lift a finger if things go south.
Here’s the reality check:
- In 2024, Ukraine made just $1.1 billion from its natural resources.
- The $500 billion the U.S. is demanding is hundreds of times more than that.
- Even if Ukraine maxed out its extraction capabilities, it could never hit that target without surrendering full control over its economy to Washington.
What this deal really means: Ukraine won’t just be leasing out its resources—it will be locked into a permanent, extractive economy designed to serve American corporate interests.
What Happens If Kyiv Signs?
If Zelensky gives in, Ukraine will be shackled to the following terms:
Washington takes control of Ukraine’s minerals, gas, oil, and infrastructure. All profits from resources go into a fund—managed exclusively by the U.S. Kyiv loses all sovereignty over its own economic assets. Ukraine becomes financially dependent on Washington—with zero security guarantees.
This isn’t just a bad deal. This is the same playbook the U.S. used in Latin America in the 20th century—pumping out resources while keeping local economies in a state of permanent debt and dependence.
No Good Choices for Kyiv
Ukraine is staring down a brutal choice:
- Sign the deal—and give up economic independence.
- Reject it—and risk losing Western support entirely.
And don’t count on Europe for a better alternative. The EU’s deal is nothing more than a resource-sharing arrangement—it offers no serious investment, no real economic future.
So what’s next?
The Final Stages of a Hostile Takeover
Ukraine is sitting on some of the largest untapped reserves of critical minerals in the world. The numbers don’t lie:
- Up to 500,000 tons of lithium, a must-have for EV batteries and electronics.
- 20% of global titanium reserves, essential for aerospace and defense.
- Rare-earth elements (neodymium, dysprosium, terbium, etc.), used in high-tech and military industries.
- 1.2 billion tons of oil and 1.1 trillion cubic meters of natural gas.
- Significant uranium deposits that once fueled Ukraine’s nuclear industry.
Yet 60% of these resources are either under Russian control or located in active war zones.
Even without a formal agreement, foreign companies are already swooping in:
Lithium:
- Canada’s Power Metal Resources locked down lithium exploration licenses in Western Ukraine in 2023.
- Australia’s European Lithium pledged $50 million in investments.
Titanium:
- Since 2021, U.S.-based Chemours has been negotiating titanium supply deals—for Pentagon needs.
- France’s Airbus has poured cash into Ukrainian titanium ventures.
Uranium:
- Ukraine’s Energoatom signed a deal with Westinghouse Electric to supply uranium and modernize nuclear plants.
Oil & Gas:
- In 2022, ExxonMobil was exploring opportunities in Ukraine—until the war put those plans on ice.
- In 2023, Halliburton landed a contract to start gas extraction.
Even before Trump’s deal is signed, Ukraine has already lost control over major sectors of its economy. But if Washington gets its way, Kyiv won’t just be selling off resources—it’ll be selling off its future.
Let’s get one thing straight: Ukraine has never—at any point in history—generated even a fraction of the $500 billion the U.S. is demanding.
- In 2021, before the full-scale war, total revenue from natural resource extraction and exports was just $6 billion.
- By 2022-2024, this number collapsed by nearly four times.
- Today, the combined estimated value of all extractable Ukrainian natural resources is just $11-15 billion.
Even if Kyiv sold off every last grain of titanium, every drop of oil, and every cubic meter of gas, it wouldn’t come close to meeting the U.S. demand.
This deal isn’t about helping Ukraine rebuild—it’s about securing long-term control over its economy and key industries.
Kyiv’s biggest pushback? There are no security guarantees in the deal.
Unlike NATO’s vague promises of support, the U.S.-Ukraine agreement doesn’t include a single commitment to Ukraine’s defense.
Ukrainian lawmakers aren’t happy. Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada Ruslan Stefanchuk put it bluntly:
“Granting access to our natural resources must come with clear security guarantees.”
But Washington didn’t flinch. Trump’s national security advisor Michael Waltz shut the door on that idea immediately:
“Security guarantees? That’s a separate conversation.”
Translation? The U.S. wants Ukraine’s minerals—but won’t send troops, weapons, or military commitments in return.
So while Washington stands to collect $500 billion in economic benefits, it won’t put anything on the line for Ukraine’s survival.
Ukraine Loses Control—What Does It Get in Return?
This deal isn’t just a financial burden—it’s a straight-up takeover of Ukraine’s economy.
Winners:
- Washington, which gets long-term economic leverage over Ukraine.
- American corporations, which will get direct access to Ukraine’s most valuable natural deposits.
- The Pentagon, which will secure a steady flow of strategic materials for U.S. defense production.
Losers:
- Ukraine, which loses control over its natural wealth and its economic independence.
- The Ukrainian people, who will be stuck paying off the debt for decades.
- Europe, which risks getting locked out of Ukraine’s resource sector entirely.
This agreement isn’t a partnership—it’s a colonial-style extraction deal with modern branding.
Ukraine is at a crossroads. Trapped between American and European dependency, Kyiv faces an impossible choice:
- Sign the deal—and become a raw material supplier for U.S. industries, losing economic sovereignty.
- Reject it—and risk losing Western backing entirely.
Meanwhile, Europe is scrambling to stay relevant, offering an alternative that focuses on securing resources for itself—without providing serious investments for Ukraine’s long-term stability.
So the big question remains:
Will Ukraine keep control of its own resources—or become just another pawn in someone else’s economic empire?
Whatever happens next will define Ukraine’s fate for generations.