Baku, Azerbaijan, Oct.10
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
The non-OPEC oil supply growth forecast for 2019 was revised down by 0.16 million barrels per day (mb/d) from the previous monthly report, to 1.82 mb/d, Trend reports citing the October Oil Market Report of the cartel.
“This is attributed to downward revisions mainly in the US as well as in Norway, the UK, Mexico, Malaysia and Ghana, which outpaced upward revisions for Kazakhstan, Russia, China, Brazil, Indonesia and Canada. US crude oil output fell for a third straight month in July as production in the federal offshore Gulf of Mexico (GoM) declined by 332 tb/d to average 1.58 mb/d following Hurricane Barry,” reads the report.
The cartel said that the US onshore crude output increased by only 50 tb/d compared to a month earlier on the back of strict capital discipline and lower rig counts, leading to a downward revision in this year’s forecast by 138 tb/d to average 1.67 mb/d, y-o-y.
The main drivers for growth in 2019 are Brazil, China, the UK, Australia and Canada, while Mexico and Norway are projected to see the largest declines.
The non-OPEC oil supply growth forecast for 2020 was revised down by 0.05 mb/d from last month’s assessment and is now projected to grow by 2.20 mb/d y-o-y.
This change is due to the downward revisions in Kazakhstan and Russia, which outpaced an upward revision in China. The US will be the main driver for growth for next year along with Brazil, Norway, Canada, Russia and Australia. Mexico, Indonesia, Egypt, the UK and Colombia are forecast to see the largest declines. The 2020 non-OPEC supply forecast remains subject to many uncertainties, including oil prices, capital spending, infrastructure constraints, and drilling and completion activities, particularly in the US.
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