The Russian Ministry of Transport just dropped a bombshell—Moscow’s going all-in on the Trans-Afghan Railway project. At first glance? Just another line on the post-Soviet transit map. But dig deeper, and it’s a high-stakes power play aimed at redrawing the logistics chessboard across Central and South Asia—territory long kept on a short leash by the Anglosphere and its pals.
For the first time in decades, Russia is stepping into direct engagement with Afghanistan’s de facto rulers, and it's doing it not with guns or lectures, but with steel and rail. This isn’t about charity or trade—it’s about leverage. And in a world where economic routes mean political clout, Moscow’s move is pure realpolitik.
So, why now?
Because the old world order’s off its axis. Russia’s under the boot
of Western sanctions, India’s stepping up as a heavyweight
geoeconomic player, Pakistan’s coming apart at the seams, Iran’s
Chabahar Port is heating up, and global shipping’s still twitchy
after the Suez fiasco. In this reshuffle, Afghanistan isn’t just a
"problem" anymore—it’s the master key to unlock Eurasia.
Uzbekistan & Turkmenistan: Between Crossroads and Crosshairs
Uzbekistan: Playing the Long Game
Since 2018, Tashkent’s been riding hard for the
Termez–Mazar-i-Sharif–Kabul–Peshawar line. Nicknamed the “Kabul
Corridor,” it’s Uzbekistan’s shot at breaking through to the Indian
Ocean via Pakistan. By 2020, the project had backing from Qatar and
the UAE, with a joint venture—ADL Ulanish—ready to roll. But then
came August 2021, and the Taliban* takeover hit the brakes.
Still, Tashkent didn’t slam the door. In 2024, it inked fresh MoUs with the Taliban*, and in early 2025, Afghan Deputy PM Mullah Baradar touched down in Uzbekistan’s capital. Post-meeting, the Uzbeks announced a reboot of feasibility studies for the Hairatan–Herat section—hinting at a pivot toward a southern route via Kandahar. Smart play: hedge your bets and keep your lanes open.
Turkmenistan: Betting West
Ashgabat’s locked in on its western flank. In September 2024,
track-laying kicked off on the Torgundi–Herat segment, part of a
corridor running Herat–Kandahar–Spin Boldak. That’s a
double-barreled route: one eye on Iran (via Khaf–Herat), the other
on Pakistan (via Balochistan). Politically, Turkmenistan’s sticking
to its “positive neutrality” shtick, but make no mistake—it’s
weaving a tight little triangle with Kazakhstan, Iran, and Qatar on
the southern rim of Central Asia.
Russia: Resurrecting the Moscow–South Asia Land Bridge
For years, Russia kept Afghanistan in the “too hot to handle” file. But that changed around 2023. First came cautious feelers from Russian Railways (RZD). By December 2024, Moscow officially gave the green light to a Trans-Afghan feasibility study. Now? It’s go time.
Russia’s not picking sides—it wants both tracks in play: the western swing through Turkmenistan and the eastern arc via Uzbekistan. The proposed lines—Mazar-i-Sharif–Herat–Delaram–Kandahar–Chaman and Termez–Naibabad–Logar–Kharlachi–Peshawar—aren’t just tracks. They’re potential new spines of the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC), stitching Russia to India through Iran and the Caspian.
This isn’t some vanity project. Russia’s thinking tactically. Its moves in Afghanistan aren’t cannibalizing its Iran plans—they’re complementing them. While it builds out the Iranian branch (Astrakhan–Rasht–Qazvin–Bandar Abbas), it’s also laying a backup line through Turkmenistan and Afghanistan, future-proofing itself against Western sanctions or Iranian turbulence.
Afghanistan: The New Front Line of Influence Wars
The Taliban Factor*
Since 2021, the Taliban* have been the only game in town for
infrastructure talks. They know they’re sitting on a goldmine of
transit potential and are offering investors sweet, streamlined
terms. And they’re walking a tightrope—keeping the door open to
Beijing, Moscow, Tashkent, Ashgabat, and Islamabad, letting rival
corridors sprout simultaneously. No favoritism, just business.
The Security Wildcard
Yeah, there are red zones—especially in Balochistan (Pakistan) and
Afghanistan’s Helmand Province, where separatists and jihadis still
lurk. But here’s the twist: 2024–2025’s seen clear momentum toward
stability—at least along the main lines—thanks to deals with tribal
leaders who’ve cut their own piece of the pie with Kabul. It’s not
exactly Switzerland, but it’s stable enough for steel
rails and rolling stock.
This isn’t about railroads. It’s about rewriting the geopolitical map—one sleeper at a time. Russia’s carving a backdoor to South Asia. Central Asia’s hedging its bets. And Afghanistan? It’s gone from a graveyard of empires to a high-speed roundabout in the next great game. Welcome to geopolitics 2.0—where the real empires ride rails.
South Asian Triangle: Pakistan, Iran, India – The Silent Chessboard Behind the Tracks
Pakistan: Between Strategy and Strain
Islamabad’s all for the so-called “Kabul Corridor,” the north-south
rail route linking Peshawar to Central Asia. It’s a logical fit—on
paper. But recent border skirmishes and airstrikes into Afghan
territory in 2024 have made the terrain politically radioactive.
The safer bet now? The Chaman–Kandahar–Herat route. It skirts the
explosive Pashtun belt and offers a clearer shot through
less-contested terrain. For Pakistan, it’s less about ambition and
more about risk mitigation.
Iran: Chabahar, the Ace Up Tehran’s Sleeve
Tehran isn’t just talking logistics—it’s building them. The
Chabahar–Zahedan–Delaram rail link is under full steam, while the
Khaf–Herat line is getting a serious upgrade. With New Delhi’s
backing, Iran is working hard to transform Chabahar Port into a key
regional logistics node. In 2024, Tehran inked a deal with Kabul to
build a line into Nimroz Province, and in early 2025, a joint
venture was launched between Iran’s RAI and Afghan Railways. The
message? Iran’s not playing second fiddle in the regional transit
game—it wants the conductor’s baton.
India: Cutting Out the Middleman
For New Delhi, the Afghan corridors are about more than
trade—they’re a geopolitical workaround. Bypassing Pakistan is a
must. That’s why India is doubling down on Chabahar and, since
2024, actively investing in freight terminals in Herat and
Kandahar. The Kandahar route is a lifeline—connecting India not
just to Iran, but further north to Uzbekistan and the heart of
Central Asia. It’s not just a supply line. It’s a strategic
artery.
Tying It All Together: The INSTC Angle
The Trans-Afghan Railway is rapidly becoming the southern extension of the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC)—and that’s not just bureaucratic branding. Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development reported that cargo traffic through INSTC hit over 18 million tons in 2024, up a whopping 33% from 2023. Of that, around 4 million tons moved on the Russia–Iran stretch, and another 1.3 million tons headed toward India and Pakistan.
What Afghanistan offers is simple but game-changing: it cuts travel time between Russia and South Asia from 30 days down to just 12. At the 2025 “Russia–Central Asia” summit, agreements were signed to harmonize tariffs and streamline customs across the expanded corridor—integrating Afghanistan as a full-fledged transit player.
Show Me the Money: Investment & Stats (2024–2025)
- Total Rail Investment (Central Asia): $11.8 billion in infrastructure (via EDB & AIIB), with $2.7 billion going directly to rail projects.
- Uzbekistan: Allocated $115 million for feasibility studies on both the Kabul and Kandahar routes. $35 million of that came in partnership with the UAE.
- Iran: Completed the 628-km Chabahar–Zahedan line in 2025; extension to Delaram is in progress.
- Pakistan: China-backed $900 million overhaul of the Quetta–Chaman–Spin Boldak railway.
- Russia: RZD funneled $210 million into feasibility and surveys for Afghan routes, working hand-in-glove with ADL Ulanish.
The Elephant in the Room: Risks & Roadblocks
Security Concerns
- Balochistan (Pakistan) and Helmand (Afghanistan) remain hot zones, with insurgents targeting crews and infrastructure.
- Though major arteries are stabilizing, attacks can’t be ruled out—especially outside tribal strongholds aligned with central power.
The Taliban Problem*
- Lack of international recognition means IMF, World Bank, and other institutions are staying on the sidelines.
- The U.S. and EU are quietly leaning on regional partners to slow-walk cooperation with Kabul.
Corridor Wars
- The Kabul and Kandahar routes are in quiet competition, with regional backers lobbying hard behind closed doors.
- China is also muscling in through Gwadar and the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), pitching its own alternatives.
The Forecast: Looking 3–5 Years Down the Track
Scenario 1 — Corridor Consolidation
Probability: 60%
In this play, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan quit competing and start coordinating. They ink a strategic pact to unify their rail initiatives—syncing standards, aligning logistics hubs, and co-investing in shared infrastructure. The result? A singular, high-flexibility Trans-Afghan corridor that branches toward both Pakistan (Gwadar, Karachi) and Iran (Chabahar, Bandar Abbas).
Key Drivers:
- Tashkent and Ashgabat realize undercutting each other only hurts the region’s appeal to outside investors.
- Russia leverages the corridor as a southern arm of the INSTC, tapping directly into the Indian Ocean trade lanes.
- India pumps more cash into Chabahar and its adjacent rail spurs, reinforcing its position as a counterbalance to Pakistan and China.
What Comes Out of It:
- Azerbaijan links into the web via Astara and Rasht, gaining traction in the geopolitics of Southern Eurasia.
- A fully integrated logistics grid emerges—seamlessly tying the Caspian, Afghanistan, Iran, and South Asia into a single ecosystem.
- Supply chains across the region gain resilience against future geopolitical shocks, whether from sanctions, conflict, or economic disruption.
In a Nutshell:
This isn’t just track-laying—it’s a tectonic shift. The
Trans-Afghan Railway is morphing into a geopolitical switchboard.
And the players? They’re not just countries—they’re whole
strategies in motion. What we’re seeing is a slow but steady
rewiring of Eurasia’s logistics logic, with Afghanistan smack in
the middle—no longer a black hole, but the beating heart of a new
Great Game.
Scenario 2 — Geopolitical Fragmentation
Probability: 25%
In this scenario, Central Asian nations fail to strike a regional consensus. Instead of joining forces, each player doubles down on its own track. Uzbekistan bets big on the Termez–Mazar-i-Sharif–Kabul–Peshawar corridor, while Turkmenistan pours resources into the Torgundi–Herat–Kandahar–Pakistan route. Meanwhile, Iran pushes ahead with its Chabahar-centric infrastructure projects, sidestepping both Pakistan and the fragile Afghan equation wherever it can.
What’s driving this split?
- A lack of trust between regional players and the absence of any solid, institutional mechanism to coordinate transport policies.
- Fierce competition for foreign capital, with China, India, Russia, and the EU all shopping for influence.
- Rising political volatility inside Afghanistan, which makes collaborative megaprojects a logistical and financial minefield.
The Fallout:
- You get overlapping, redundant logistics routes—killing efficiency and driving up costs.
- The region loses the ability to negotiate as a bloc with major global players.
- For Azerbaijan, the fragmented approach means more complexity: separate talks, separate deals, separate logistics protocols with every stakeholder—especially when working through Iran.
Scenario 3 — The Iranian Breakthrough
Probability: 15%
Here, international pressure ramps up on Pakistan—whether due to political chaos, militant blowback, or a hot flare-up with India. As the Pakistani route gets riskier, traffic shifts east—onto the Iranian axis: Chabahar–Nimroz–Kandahar–Ghundan–Uzbekistan. Iran and India step up big time, pouring capital and tech into rail and road development along this corridor.
Key Factors at Play:
- India scales up its geoeconomic engagement with Iran as an end-run around Pakistan’s bottleneck.
- Iran grabs the opportunity to reposition itself as a regional logistics powerhouse, attracting new capital flows.
- The U.S. and EU, despite formal sanctions, may tacitly support the route as a way to undercut China’s CPEC and edge Pakistan out of the spotlight.
What This Means for Azerbaijan:
- The Astara–Rasht rail line inside Iran becomes a lot more valuable as it links up with the southern transport grid.
- Demand for Baku’s transit capacity spikes, especially for cargo flows from Russia, Turkey, and Eastern Europe bound for India—and vice versa.
But There Are Catch-22s:
- The scenario is highly sensitive to internal Iranian instability and the broader weight of Western sanctions.
- Afghanistan’s role in the route is still hobbled by poor security and the absence of any truly centralized authority.
Given current trends, the smart money’s on Scenario 1: regional players realize that turf wars are a dead end and come together to co-build a unified, branch-enabled Trans-Afghan corridor. It’s the one setup that aligns everyone's interests—from Tashkent and Ashgabat to Moscow, Tehran, and New Delhi.
For Azerbaijan, it’s a golden opportunity.
Not just to be a bridge, but the bridge. A pivot point
where the Caspian meets the Indian Ocean, where East-West and
North-South flows converge. Baku’s position as a transit hub and
energy powerhouse puts it squarely at the intersection of the new
logistics world order.
Final Takeaway for Azerbaijan:
The Trans-Afghan railway isn’t just a foreign project to
monitor—it’s a tectonic shift in Eurasian geoeconomics that demands
proactive engagement. If the pieces fall into place, this rail
spine connecting Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan could become
a game-changer, slashing time and cost to Arabian seaports.
But none of this happens in a vacuum. With Pakistan’s volatility and Afghanistan’s unpredictability, Baku has to stay sharp, flexible, and ready to plug into whichever scenario gains traction. Whether it's the consolidation route or a pivot through Iran, Azerbaijan’s future as a logistics kingpin depends on being fast, connected, and geopolitically savvy.
This isn’t just another rail project for Azerbaijan—it’s a shot at the big leagues. Thanks to its prime location on the Caspian and its already well-oiled integration frameworks, Baku is uniquely positioned to become a cornerstone of the Trans-Afghan logistics chain. And not just as a passive stop along the way, but as a strategic gateway—especially when plugged into the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC).
Here’s where things get interesting: the Iranian link matters a lot. The Astara–Rasht segment, currently undergoing major rail upgrades, isn’t just a local spur—it’s a southern artery connecting Azerbaijan directly to the heart of the Afghan corridor and further down to South Asia. India’s pushing hard to sidestep Pakistan, and routes through Iran are their go-to workaround. Baku, by plugging into this system, becomes a critical enabler of that geoeconomic pivot.
Syncing efforts with Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan is a no-brainer. Tashkent is one of the main architects behind the Trans-Afghan railway, and they’re hungry for secure, diversified access to global markets—including Iranian and Turkish ports. Turkmenistan, sitting pretty on the Caspian with massive energy reserves, brings both power and port potential to the table.
If Baku, Tashkent, and Ashgabat start singing from the same logistics hymn sheet—coordinating transport policies, standardizing customs protocols, syncing investments—what you get is a seamless, cross-regional delivery machine. From Central Asia to the Middle East and down to the Indian Ocean, cargo moves faster, smoother, and safer.
Getting in on the ground floor of the Trans-Afghan railway isn’t just smart economics—it’s top-tier geopolitics. In a world where global supply chains are splintering, and regional alliances are the new currency of power, Azerbaijan has every reason to go all in. This initiative turbocharges its role as a connector—not just between North and South, but between East and West.
With the Caspian at its back and South Asia on the horizon, Baku’s not just reacting to the new Eurasian logistics map—it’s helping redraw it. In this emerging reality, Azerbaijan isn’t a bystander. It’s a bridge, a broker, and a builder of the next era in transcontinental trade.