Baku, Azerbaijan, Nov.14
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2018 is now estimated at 2.31 million barrels per day (mb/d), according to OPEC’s November Oil Market Report (MOMR).
It was revised up by 0.09 mb/d from the previous MOMR, and is now estimated at 2.31 mb/d, mainly due to upward revisions in historical US and Russian production data, as well as a reassessment of their supply forecasts, which partially offset downward revisions in historical production data for Norway, the UK, Brazil and China, according to the cartel.
OPEC believes that the US, Canada, Kazakhstan, Russia and the UK are expected to be the main drivers for y-o-y growth, while Mexico, Norway, Indonesia and Vietnam will show the largest declines.
The report shows that non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.12 mb/d to stand at 2.23 mb/d and is now forecast to reach an average of 62.09 mb/d, despite a downward reassessment of the oil supply forecasts for Canada, Mexico, Brazil and China.
“The US, Brazil, Canada and the UK are expected to be the main growth drivers, while Mexico, Norway, Indonesia and Vietnam are projected to see the largest declines,” said the cartel.
There are many challenges and uncertainties with regard to the 2019 non-OPEC supply forecast, including oil transport infrastructure constraints in the US and Canada, according to the report.
In December 2016, at a meeting of oil producers in Vienna, 11 non-OPEC countries, including Azerbaijan, agreed to cut oil production by a total of 558,000 barrels a day. The agreement was concluded for the first half of 2017 and was extended until the end of the first quarter of 2018 at a meeting on May 25, 2017.
At the last OPEC meeting in Vienna, the agreement was again extended until the end of 2018. Azerbaijan supported the decision.
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