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Future Turkey-Armenia relations will depend on Russia’s foreign policy line

Politics Materials 12 February 2009 12:22 (UTC +04:00)

Azerbaijan, Baku, Feb. 12/ Trend , B. Hasanov, E. Ostapenko/ If Russia makes changes in the neighborhood policy it pursued so far, it can contribute to normalizing Ankara-Yerevan talks.

"If Russia chooses policy to compete will regional powers and exercise control over the Caucasus region with help of military bases, it means that Russia does not want Turkey-Armenia ties to normalize. However, if Russia pursues cooperation policy in the region, it means Russia backs normalizing Ankara-Yerevan ties," Turkish expert Kamer Kasim said.

The Turkish President Abdullah Gul will pay an official visit to Russia on Feb. 12-15, Turkey's Cihan news agency reported. Turkey and Russia are expected to hold discussions on the Caucasus region during the visit.

Turkey proposed to establish Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform to ensure stability and cooperation in the Caucasus on the backdrop of the Georgia-Russia conflict in Aug. 2008. Turkey proposes the platform to cover Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Russia and Turkey. Ankara seeks to promote dialogue among regional states in an effort to solve problems between these countries. Ankara also seeks to normalize Turkey-Armenia relations. Armenian-Turkish ties have been severed since 1993 because of Armenia's false "genocide" claims and occupation of 20% of Azerbaijani lands. Turkish President Abdullah Gul visited Yerevan on Sept. 6, 2008 at the invitation of his Armenian counterpart Serzh Sarkisyan to watch Armenia-Turkey football match of the European Cup. Efforts have been made since then to normalize ties between the two countries.

Turkish expert Kamer Kasim says without Russia's pressure, Yerevan will not accept Turkey's conditions to halt genocide campaign across the world, to recognize Turkey's territorial integrity and take steps to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Russia's attitude to normalization of Turkey-Armenia ties will be determined by the foreign policy line it will choose.

"Following Georgia-Russia conflict, it is more appropriate for Russia's foreign policy to cooperate with Turkey. From this viewpoint, the Caucasus Platform meets Moscow's interests," research fellow at the International Strategic Studies Center Kamer Kasim told Trend in a telephone conversation from Ankara.

Expert said the energy cooperation with Ankara is important for Moscow. He said Russia does not want Nabucco gas pipeline project to be implemented so that to keep monopoly on the European gas market. Therefore, it seeks persuade Ankara to build a second gas pipeline bypassing Ukraine.

"Russia can support Turkey in terms of issues regarding the Caucasus in a bid to persuade Ankara to implement the Blue Stream-2 project," Kasim added.

He said if Armenia takes concrete measures in terms of "genocide" and Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, it will mean that Moscow puts pressure on Yerevan to normalize ties with Turkey. "Moscow's position on this issue will be clear after Abdullah Gul's visit to Russia," Kasim noted. 

Russian expert Kyril Tanayev says energy issues will be one of the matters of debate during Gul's visit to Moscow. Moscow puts special emphasis on ties with Ankara and will back the Caucasus platform. Normalization of the Ankara-Yerevan ties meets Moscow's interests, he said. "Moscow is doing its utmost to normalize Ankara-Yerevan ties," director general of the Useful Policy Fund Tanayev said to Trend via email from Moscow.

European expert Michael Emerson says Moscow's attitude to normalization of the Turkey-Armenia ties is determined is by its interests.

"If negative nationalism and out-of-date foreign policy line is pursued, Moscow will not have positive attitude to normalization of the Turkey-Armenia ties. Of course, political line based on good neighbor ties will support Ankara-Yerevan ties," senior expert at the Centre for European Policy Studies Emerson said to Trend via telephone from Brussels.

He said there are some forces in Moscow who seek to retain means of influence in the region by continuing Russia's patronage over Armenia. "These forces do not want Turkey-Armenia ties to normalize," Tanayev said.

Ankara and Yerevan have held meetings on the level of foreign ministers for several times. Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan met with the Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandyan and Armenian President Serzh Sarkisyan in Munich. Babacan and Sarkisyan made positive statements after the talks.

R. Agayev (Moscow) also contributed to the article.

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