BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 19. North American natural gas demand is expected to experience a slowdown, peaking in 2023 with growth close to 1 percent, Trend reports.
According to the estimations made by the International Energy Agency (IEA), during the first three quarters of 2023, natural gas consumption in North America witnessed an estimated 1 percent increase, equivalent to 8 bcm, primarily driven by heightened gas utilization in the power sector.
In the US, natural gas demand saw an estimated 0.8 percent rise, equal to 5 bcm, within the same period, with this growth entirely attributed to the power sector.
Preliminary data suggests that gas-to-power demand in the US expanded by 6 percent (16 bcm) in Q1-Q3, influenced by reduced hydroelectric output and a decline in coal-fired generation, which dropped nearly 20 percent year-on-year. Consequently, the share of natural gas in the power generation mix climbed from 34 percent in January 2021 to over 45 percent in August 2023, marking its highest monthly average on record. By year-end, the IEA anticipates that 16 gas-fired power plants, adding up to 8.4 GW of additional capacity, will come online in the US.
Canada saw an estimated 2 percent (1.5 bcm) year-on-year increase in natural gas consumption during Q1-Q3 2023. This growth was driven by a 5-percent year-on-year increase in natural gas demand in the power and industrial sectors in 1H2023, largely due to the transition from coal to gas in the power sector. However, this growth was nearly offset by a 9-percent year-on-year decline in residential and commercial gas demand.
In Mexico, estimated natural gas consumption increased by 2 percent (1 bcm) year-on-year in the first eight months of 2023.
Thus, the IEA projects that 2023 growth will be followed by a decline in 2024, primarily triggered by a reduction in gas demand for power generation in the US.