BAKU, Azerbaijan, February 25. Global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is projected to increase by approximately 60% by 2040, driven by economic growth in Asia, industrial decarbonization, and rising energy needs in transport, according to Shell’s LNG Outlook 2025, Trend reports.
Industry forecasts estimate LNG demand will reach between 630 and 718 million tonnes annually by 2040, marking an upward revision from previous projections. In 2024, global LNG trade grew by just 2 million tonnes, the lowest increase in a decade, reaching 407 million tonnes due to limited new supply development. However, more than 170 million tonnes of additional LNG supply is expected to become available by 2030, although the timing of new projects remains uncertain.
China is expanding its LNG import capacity and plans to add pipeline gas connections for 150 million people by 2030. India is also advancing its gas infrastructure development, targeting 30 million new gas connections over the next five years.
In the marine sector, LNG-powered vessel demand is projected to exceed 16 million tonnes per year by 2030, reflecting a 60% increase from previous forecasts. LNG remains a competitive fuel option for shipping and road transport, with the potential to incorporate lower-carbon alternatives such as bio-LNG and synthetic LNG.
Europe is expected to maintain its LNG imports into the 2030s to support energy security and balance intermittent renewable energy sources. In the long term, existing gas infrastructure could facilitate the import of bio-LNG, synthetic LNG, and green hydrogen.
The United States and Qatar are set to drive LNG supply growth, with the U.S. projected to reach 180 million tonnes of annual exports by 2030, accounting for one-third of global supply.
Market conditions in 2024 saw spot LNG prices initially decline to their lowest level since early 2022 before rebounding mid-year due to supply delays. Asian demand strengthened as China imported 79 million tonnes of LNG, while India’s imports rose to 27 million tonnes, a 20% increase from 2023.
In Europe, LNG imports fell by 19% in 2024 due to strong renewable energy generation and weak industrial demand. However, cold winter conditions and reduced Russian pipeline gas supplies led to increased gas storage withdrawals, pushing prices higher. European LNG imports are expected to rise in 2025 to replenish storage levels.