Azerbaijan, Baku, May 26 / Trend , N.Ismayilova/
World oil prices are likely to go up compared to current in the near future, John Lipsky, the First Deputy Managing Director, said at the energy forum of the G8 in Italy. Lipsky's speech was placed on Fund's official website.
According to IMF, more recently, oil price volatility has decreased from the high levels seen last year, and further near-term declines are likely, for two reasons. First, global oil demand is expected to recover only gradually, reflecting the prospect of a gradual global growth recovery.
Second, buffers are higher than they were during the boom. Spare capacity in OPEC producers has risen substantially. The IEA estimates that OPEC-11 spare capacity in April was 6.3 million barrels a day, more than twice the recent average of some 3 million barrels..
Inventories also are much higher than usual in the OECD economies. The inventory forward demand cover is estimated to have reached more than 62 days by end-March, substantially above the recent 5-year average of some 53 days. With buffers at such comfortable levels, upside price risks from factors such as short-term supply shortages should remain limited for some time.
Of course, producer policies also will play a role in determining the market outlook.
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