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Parliamentary Elections in Belarus Not to Lead to Orange Revolution: Experts

Politics Materials 29 September 2008 23:41 (UTC +04:00)

Azerbaijan, Baku, 29 September / Trend corr. Y. Ostapenko / The Belarusian oppositionїs dissatisfaction with the parliamentary elections, which were held on 28 September, hardly will lead to revolution similar to `orangeї in Ukraine and `rose revolutionї in Georgia.

їBelarus does not have resources for orange revolution,ї Azar Mursaliyev, the deputy editor-in-chief of the Russian Kommersant newspaper, told Trend news over telephone from Moscow.

None of the opposition representatives gained a seat at the National Assembly of Belarus in the parliamentary elections. The fact aroused protest of the opposition, which believes that the election results have been falsified again.

Experts hold the same opinion that as the opposition movement is not strong enough in Belarus, it cannot arouse revolution in the country, as it was in Ukraine and Georgia.

According to Mirsaliyev, revolution does not need some tens or hundreds of people, but the most enough. Representatives of medium and huge business and some officials should be amongst them, the expert believes.

їOpposition group in Belarus is less developed that in Ukraine, Thomas Vancouver, an independent European expert, thinks. Only a small part of people supports them.ї

In the evening about 300-400 oppositionists assembled in the centre of Minsk and this fact cannot testify beginning of revolution in the country,ї Vladimir Zharikhin, the deputy director of the Institution of the CIS countries, believes.

Experts think that revolution is improbable in Belarus because of simultaneous influence of the West and Russian on the country, as well.

Belarus seeks to maintain balance in relations of both Moscow and the western alliances, Mursaliyev said.

їIt is pointless and unprofitable for Belarus to lose relations with both of them,ї Mursaliyev said. Some part of people, who lead revolution, understand it very well, the expert said.

President Lukashenko does not hide that he hopes to improve relations with the West after a long-year confrontation. Many European observers participated in the elections and this fact testifies Lukashenkoїs tendency to get support of the West, because earlier the Belarusian Government opposed it.

Lukashenko signed a pardon decree concerning some political prisoners by the elections and gave opportunity to 70 opposition candidates to be registered for participation in the elections.

President Lukashenko said that the elections were free and fair. He hoped that they would assist in improvement of relations between Minsk and the West, RIA Novosti reported.

The elections in Belarus were geopolitical performance, Mursaliyev said. Russia is sure that a new parliament is under the Presidentїs control and promise, which was given to Moscow to examine recognition of independencies of Abkhazia and South Ossetia by the parliament, will be fulfilled, the political scientist believes.

їThere is not any oppositionist, who could to resist this decision,ї Mursaliyev thinks.

Despite the presence of definite breakthrough in democratic forces, the Belarusian leadership has too much work on this matter, Vancouver said.

The European observers have not approved elections in Belarus since 1996, except the last one. A total of 263 candidates contested for 110 mandates in the parliamentary elections in Belarus on 28 September. Votersї participation in the elections exceeded 75%, due to the authoritiesї data. The opposition leaders did not gain any seat at the parliament.

V.Zhavoronkova (Baku) and R.Agayev (Moscow) participated in writing of the article.

The correspondent can be contacted at:  [email protected]

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