Azerbaijan, Baku, Dec. 23 / Trend V. Zhavoronkova /
Several significant events took place in Central Asia in 2010. There were trends which could affect the entire region in the future, Deutsche Welle's Russian service editor-in-chief and East Europe department head,
Ingo Mannteufel said.
"The year of 2010 turned out to be extremely rich in events in Central Asian countries," Mannteufel told Trend via e-mail.
He said that, naturally, the most important ones took place in Kyrgyzstan. These include the collapse of President Bakiyev's regime, ethnic conflicts in southern Kyrgyzstan, and then a referendum on a new constitution with further parliamentary elections.
Ex-president Kurmanbek Bakiyev was ousted in April 2010 after large-scale actions of protest.
Then the temporary government headed by Rosa Otunbayeva came into power, and the system of governance changed from presidential to parliamentary.
Almazbek Atambayev was elected Prime Minister by the parliamentary coalition last week.
"These decisive changes were decisive not only for Kyrgyzstan, but for the whole region. It was difficult to estimate the consequences," he said.
He added that building a functioning parliamentary democracy in Kyrgyzstan next year will have a significant impact on neighboring countries.
"For the same reason the new system of government and democratic forces face the potential for serious confrontation both in Kyrgyzstan and outside," Mannteufel said.
Besides the coup in Kyrgyzstan, one must not forget about Kazakhstan's chairmanship in the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in outgoing 2010 and other events in the region, he said.
"A prestigious chairmanship in the OSCE amid the Central Asian countries fixed a leading position of Kazakhstan in the region," he believed.
However, in general the hopes for strengthening the organization failed after the chairmanship of Astana and its summit organized for the first time since 1999.
The summit, held in Astana on Dec. 1-2, brought together presidents and prime ministers from 56 OSCE member countries and 12 OSCE partner countries, as well as the heads of 68 international organizations. A final declaration was adopted for the first time within 11 years.
The outcome of the meeting was disappointing. The hoped-for adoption of a plan of action on resolving international conflicts and reforming the OSCE failed. It is clear that now the OSCE, as an organization, is paralyzed, Mannteufel said.
He further added that the prospects for improving this situation are not so obvious now. But the responsibility should not be imposed on Kazakh leadership, although it must be recognized that Kazakhstan failed to cope with the role as mediator between Russia and the West.
"During the escalation of conflicts in Kyrgyzstan, Astana did not act as one might expect from a neighboring state, especially the OSCE acting chairman," he said.
In summing up the results of the year for Central Asia, Mannteufel thought it appropriate to say a few words about Tajikistan.
First, the threat from Islamist forces are increasing there, of course, amid the conflict in Afghanistan. Second, a shaky situation concerning energy supply in Tajikistan, which was the cause of constant friction with Uzbekistan, will likely improve next year thanks to the increased activity of Gazprom in gas production, he said.
"This is likely to lead to a further aggravation of relations with Uzbekistan. If we take into account the construction of a hydroelectric power station, the claims of Tajikistan may include the rejection of the role of energy importer suffering privations, and its turning into a significant exporter of electricity for the entire region, he said.
Of course, this is about the future. But the prospect for such transformations can change the political scenario of Central Asia, he said.
"My general impression is that in their development Central Asian counties will move away from each other, while trying to adapt their geopolitical and geo-economic position to the new requirements," Mannteufel said.