BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 17
Trend:
Russia’s Gazprombank does not rule out that the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) will again increase the refinancing rate by 25 basis points to 7.75 percent after the upcoming meeting scheduled for March 18, Deputy Head of the Market Research Department at Russia’s Gazprombank Gulnara Khaidarshina told Trend.
Khaidarshina said that this is connected with the slowdown in the inflation rate in Azerbaijan in February.
“The real rates on deposits in manat remain negative, economic growth is accelerating and may exceed expectations by the end of the year in connection with the surge in inflation rate in the countries, which are key exporters to Azerbaijan,” deputy head of the department added.
“We expect the rate to increase in April amid these conditions,” Khaidarshina said.
The deputy head of the department stressed that the balance of risks in the Azerbaijani economy is still inclined to acceleration in inflation since the January meeting when the CBA carefully re-raised the rate by 25 basis points.
“The consumer price growth slowed in February, but still exceeds the refinancing rate by 440 basis points thanks to the non-monetary anti-inflationary measures,” Khaidarshina added.
“Taking into account that the CBA stressed at the December meeting that the effect of the previous rate hikes has been already observed while a stable exchange rate allows limiting external inflationary pressure, we do not expect tougher actions from the Central Bank of Azerbaijan,” the deputy head of the department said.