BAKU, Azerbaijan, Nov.1
By Leman Zeynalova - Trend:
Oil prices barely budged in October from September, and are expected to hold steady for the rest of 2019, Trend reports citing Capital Economics, UK-based research and consulting company.
“Despite apparent progress in US-China trade talks, oil prices barely moved in October, as a fall in the global PMI underscored concerns over the outlook for oil demand. Looking forward, we expect oil prices to rise a little in 2020 as the global economy avoids recession and world trade gradually picks up,” said the company in its brief analysis.
Meanwhile on the supply side, the recent decline in US drilling rigs looks set to continue and will probably weigh on output growth, Capital Economics believes.
“Elsewhere, OPEC officials hinted at deeper output cuts in 2020. We expect Saudi Arabia will be keen to maintain production cuts, as Aramco prepares for its IPO,” said the company.
Capital economics expects Brent oil prices to be steady at $60 per barrel from the fourth quarter of 2019 through the first quarter of 2020 and then rise to $62 per barrel in the second quarter of 2020.
Brent prices will continue rising in the subsequent quarters, standing at $66 per barrel in the third quarter of 2020 and then stabilizing $70 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2020 and in the first quarter of 2021, according to the company.
This is while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices are forecast to rise from current $54 per barrel to $55 per barrel in the last quarter of 2019, then slightly rising to $56 per barrel in the first quarter of the next year. WTI prices will continue with $59 per barrel in the second quarter of 2020, rising to $63 and $67 per barrel in the third and fourth quarters of 2020. WTI is expected to stay at $67 per barrel in the first quarter of 2021.
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