BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 8
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
The share of all renewables (including traditional uses of biomass) is projected to rise to 21.5 percent of total final energy consumption (TFEC) by 2030, from 17 percent in 2018, while that of modern renewables would increase to 16 percent in 2030, up from 10.5 percent in 2018, Trend reports with reference to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
IRENA’s Planned Energy Scenario, by contrast, shows the total share of renewables in TFEC (including traditional uses of biomass) remaining largely flat until 2030, rising only slightly to 17.5 percent. The replacement of traditional uses of bioenergy with modern forms largely o!sets growth in the renewable share over the period. The modern renewable energy share in TFEC increases from 10.5 percent in 2018 to 16.5 percent by 2030. The use of renewables to generate electricity has grown the fastest in recent years, and the various scenarios project that this trend will continue.
Renewable sources of electricity have been resilient during the COVID-19 crisis and are set for strong growth, rising by two-thirds from 2020 to 2030, with PV and wind driving growth. Over the decade, renewables overtake coal as the primary means of generating electricity. Solar PV is the strongest performer, meeting almost a third of electricity demand growth over the period thanks to widely available resources, declining costs, and policy support in more than 130 countries. Nonetheless, hydropower remains the largest low-emissions source of electricity globally through to 2030, while also providing flexibility and other power system services.
Expansion in the direct use of renewables in end-use sectors such as buildings and transport has remained slow but steady. Modern bioenergy accounts for the lion’s share of growth through to 2030. In the transport sector, biofuels see strong growth, while the use of renewables for heat also grows, with modern bioenergy accounting for the largest share of the growth. Biogas and modern biomass for heating also see demand grow, driven by industry growth. Furthermore, there is a risk that some targets may not be enforced, or that implementation dates may be delayed as a result of pressures arising from the COVID-19 pandemic. Supportive policies may, however, play a major role in recovery packages, especially transport biofuels on the grounds that they would provide support for agricultural production while also reducing emissions.
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