Review of monetary sector in Azerbaijan ( First quarter 2012 )

The official monetary reserves of the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) increased by $344 million (3.3 per cent) in the first quarter of 2012. The monetary reserves of the bank amounted to $10.825.6 billion as of April 1, 2012.

In 2010, the CBA's reserves amounted to $6.407.6 billion, and in 2011 - $10.481.5 billion. In 2012, the Central Bank expects about $3-billion increase in its monetary reserves.

The official monetary reserves of the CBA increased by $102.3 million (one per cent) in January 2012 and amounted to $10.583.8 billion, while in February this figure hit $10.769.7 billion (a 1.75-percent increase).

Currency market and manat rate

The Azerbaijani Central Bank (CBA) conducted sterilization of foreign currency to the amount of $233 million to avoid the significant strengthening of manat and to neutralize the negative impact on the competitiveness of the non-oil sector during the first quarter of 2012.

The Central Bank continued conducting its exchange rate policy within the bilateral targeting of dollar / manat in the first quarter. Supply expanded in the country's currency market in terms of the large surplus in the balance of payments.

The exchange rate of manat compared to dollar strengthened by 0.04 percent in the first quarter 2012. The stability of the national currency during the last quarter had a positive impact on the stability of macroeconomic and financial sector.

The nominal effective exchange rate of manat strengthened compared to currencies of most countries-trade partners of Azerbaijan in the first quarter. The dynamics of the nominal effective exchange rate of manat has had an impact on the change in the real effective exchange rate.

During the reporting period manat strengthened compared to the currencies of Ukraine, Iran, and Japan both nominally and really. It cheapened both nominally and really compared to the currencies of the euro zone, Great Britain, Turkey, Russia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Israel, China, Belarus and South Korea.

During the first quarter of 2012 the nominal effective exchange rate on the non-oil sector in the total trade turnover cheapened by 2.1 percent. Inflation in the partner countries contributed to the decrease in the real effective exchange rate by 0.8 percent. The real effective exchange rate on non-oil sector cheapened by 2.9 percent.

Thus, during the reporting period the Central Bank has ensured stability of bilateral exchange rate of manat and dollar. The fluctuations in the bilateral exchange rate in a number of partner countries influenced the multilateral exchange rate of manat.

Forecast of average annual rate of national currency against the U.S. dollar until 2015 remains unchanged - at 0.79 manat as in 2011. As it can be seen the government preserves stability with respect to the forecast of the dollar and predicts a gradual appreciation of the manat against euro.

According to the forecasts of the Azerbaijani government, the rate of the manat against the euro in 2012 is expected to be 1.091 manat per one euro against the expected in 2011 1.0939 manat (according to the CBA at the end of the year exchange rate was 1.0178 AZN). In 2013 the rate is projected at 1.0608 manat, in 2014 - 1.0430 manat and in 2015 - 1.0387 manat.

The total volume of trading at Baku Interbank Currency Exchange (BBVB) on USD/AZN reached 83.81 million manat in March, or 106.658 million in dollar equivalent.

The total trading volume in currency increased by $59.358 million or by 2.3 times in the reporting month compared to the indices of February.

The average daily turnover in "Bourse E-System of Trades" on USD/AZN reached approximately $6.666 million in March, then that the average volume of each transaction has made $3.047 million.

In total, 13 banks took part in the trades of currency section of the BBVB in March. In accounting month in "Bourse E-System of Trades" (BEST) 32 trading sessions were conducted and 35 transactions were registered

The exchange rate of national currency on USD / AZN_TOD in the reporting month decreased by 0.05 percent - from 0.7853 to 0.7857 per dollar. The average rate of the dollar compared to manat was 0.7858 manat to the dollar in March compared to 0.7859 manat as of February.

Monetary market of Azerbaijan

The CBA's important task is to govern the money supply at an adequate level of macroeconomic and financial stability in terms of a continuous growth of foreign exchange reserves and high liquidity of the banking system.

The Central Bank of Azerbaijan noted an increase in all units of money supply in January-February 2012 compared to the similar period of last year and reduction in all figures compared to the beginning of this year.

Money supply (M2) (cash in circulation (outside banks) and remainders in the domestic currency on accounts of non-financial organizations, financial (excluding credit) organizations and individuals) in January-February 2012 increased by 35.2 percent compared to the same period of 2011, and decreased by 2.75 percent compared to early 2012.

So, as of March 1, 2012, the rate of M2 was 10.694.3 billion manat compared to 7.907.7 billion manat as of March 1, 2011 and 10.997.2 billion manat as of early 2012.

The amount of cash money supply (M0) as of March 1, 2012 hit 6.911.2 billion manat compared to 5.363.1 billion manat as of March 1, 2011 and 7.158.2 billion manat as of early 2012.

As of early March 2012, Broad Money Supply (M3) totaled 13.799.2 billion manat compared to 10.272.6 billion manat in early March 2011 and 13.903.2 billion manat as of early 2012.

The transaction money (M1) amounted to 8.362.7 billion manat as of early March 2012 compared to 6.555.5 billion manat as of early March 2011 and 8.824.8 billion manat as of January 2012.

Parameters of monetary market, in bln manat

As of March 1, the expanded monetary base amounted to 7.908.7 billion manat in Azerbaijan. The monetary base increased by 29.2 per cent per year, but declined by 6.8 per cent compared to early 2012.

As of March 1, 2012 the monetary base in manat was 7.825.2 billion manat compared to 6.099.5 billion manat as of March 1, 2011 and 8.275.3 billion manat as of Jan.1, 2012.

In the reporting period, the volume of currency in circulation amounted to 7.323.9 billion manat. As of March 1, 2011 this figure amounted to 5.685.1 billion manat, and as of January 1, 2012 7.658.5 billion manat.

The bank reserves hit 571.9 million manat, or 32.6 per cent more than in January-February 2011 (431.4 million manat), but 30.8 per cent less than the same figure as of early 2012 (826.4 million manat).

The ratio between the cash in circulation and monetary base for the reporting period hit 92.6 per cent compared to 92.9 per cent as of March 1, 2011, and 90.2 per cent as of Jan. 1, 2012.

Credit market of Azerbaijan

Azerbaijani banks increased lending to the Azerbaijani economy by 2.6 percent in January-February 2012, while during the year by 11.5 percent

As of early March 2012, the banks issued loans totaling 10.206.9 billion manat (including 6.616.8 billion manat in national currency (64.8 percent) in national currency and 3.590.1 billion manat in hard currency) 35.2 percent.

As of early January 2012, the figure was equal to 9.950.3 billion manat (6.426.5 billion in national currency and 3.523.8 billion manat in hard currency), and as of March 1, 2011 - 9.152.8 billion manat (5.888.6 billion manat and 3.264.2 billion manat in hard currency).

Of the total portfolio, loans worth 648.8 million manat (6.35 percent) were overdue compared to 633.8 million manat as of Jan.1, 509.4 million manat as of March 1, 2011. Statistics of overdue loans does not include similar loans of non-bank credit institution Aqrarkredit.

Short-term loans as of early March 2012, amounted to 3.058.3 billion manat (including overdue loans worth 331.9 million manat) compared to 3.051.2 billion manat (including overdue loans worth 326.2 million manat) as of Jan. 1, 2.501.4 billion manat (258.3 million) as of March 1, 2011. The amount of short-term loans increased by 22.3 percent during the year. As of early March 2012, 35 percent of short-term lending accounted for hard currency.

Long-term loans amounted to 7.148.6 billion manat (including 316.9 million manat overdue loans) compared to 6.899.1 billion manat (307.6 million overdue loans) as of Jan.1, 6.651.5 billion manat (251.1 million manat) as of March 1, 2011. The amount of long-term loans increased by 7.5 percent during the year. As of late February 2012, 35.24 percent of long-term lending fell to hard currency.

As of early March 2012, the only state bank of the country (the International Bank of Azerbaijan) granted loans totaling 3.396.5 billion manat with a specific weight of 33.3 percent, and private banks - 6.540.6 billion manat with a specific weight of 64.1 percent. The remaining 2.6 percent fall to the share of non-bank credit organizations, which received loans worth 269.8 million manat.

The loans issued to the population in the Azerbaijani regions hit 1.296.9 billion manat as of March 1, 2012 or 12.7 percent of the total loan portfolio of banks.

In Baku, the figure was 8.909.98 billion manat, where the loans in national currency hit 5.645.1 billion manat.

The average interest rate on the country as of March was 16.2 percent, Baku - 15.5 percent.

The lending volume on Absheron economic region totaled 294.76 million manat at an average rate of 17.7 percent, Aran - 288.05 million manat at 22.8 percent, Mountain-Shirvan - 34.76 million manat at 21.3 percent, Ganja -Gazakh - 283.7 million manat at 21.5 percent, Guba-Khachmaz - 104.9 million manat at 21.1 percent, Lankaran - 124.4 million manat at 24.6 percent, Sheki-Zagatala - 82.5 million manat at 23.3 percent, Upper Karabakh - 11.99 million manat at 21.7 percent, Kalbajar-Lachin - 2.04 million manat at 17.3 percent, Nakhchivan - 69.8 million manat at 12 percent.

Most of all loans are granted to households in Azerbaijan. According to the CBA, as of March 1, 2012 households received 33.9 percent or loans worth 3.455.9 billion manat.

The sphere of trade and services (28.5 percent or 2.910.9 billion manat) ranks second, the construction sector of real estate (8.6 percent or 874.5 million manat) ranks third.

About 5.7 percent or 583.2 million manat accounted for industry, agriculture and processing - 4.7 percent (474.9 million manat), 4.1 percent or 419.4 million manat - transport and communications, energy natural resources - 2.8 percent (284.8 million manat), rest areas - 0.5 percent or 47.8 million manat of loans.

Azerbaijani banks have lowered interest rates on credits in manat. As of March 1 the average rate on bank lending to Azerbaijani economy in national currency amounted to 16.17 percent compared to 16.27 percent as of Jan.1, 2012, 16.43 percent - as of March 1, 2011.

The average rate on bank lending in foreign currency was 16.4 percent against 16.79 percent and 16.89 percent respectively.

By early March the average interest rate on bank lending entity in national currency amounted to 14.51 percent versus 14.53 percent in January 2012 and 14.46 percent in March 2011. The average rate on bank loans to corporate customers in foreign currency was 13.72 percent compared to 14.3 percent and 13.71 percent respectively.

As of Feb.1 the average rate on bank lending to a physical entity in national currency amounted to 18.78 percent versus 19.06 percent as of Jan.1, 2012 and 19.67 percent - as of March 1, 2011.

The average rate on bank credit for an individual client in foreign currency amounted to 23.01 percent against 22.9 percent and 23.8 percent respectively.

Banking sector of Azerbaijan

As of March 1, 2012, the total amount of deposits of physical and legal entities in Azerbaijani banks amounted to 6.859.8 billion manat. Including deposits of non-residents and state agencies, the figure was 9.507.0 billion manat, which is more by 30 percent compared to January-February 2011 (7315.0 million manat) and by 0.63 percent more than early 2012.

Deposits in national currency - manat as of March 1 totaled 4.210.6 billion manat, of which 1.570.1 billion manat are demand deposits, 2.640.5 billion manat - term deposits. In turn, deposits in hard currency were equal to 5.296.5 billion manat (1.696.3 billion manat and 3.600.2 billion manat, respectively).

As of Jan.1, 2012, the volume of physical entities' deposits in banks in Azerbaijan amounted to 4.330.6 billion manat, which is 37.8 percent more compared to the same period of 2011 (3.142.9 billion manat) and by 5.1 percent as of early 2012 (4.119.8 billion manat)

Some 2.421.4 billion manat (55.9 percent) of the population were placed in the national currency - manat, 1.909.2 billion manat - in hard currency.

There was a situation when cash deposits of Azerbaijan's population in the national currency exceeded cash deposits in foreign currency. It should be called that last year the similar situation emerged in December, November and August.

In 2011 some 2.281.6 billion manat (55.4 percent) of the population were placed in the national currency - manat, 1.838.1 billion manat - in hard currency.

Deposits of the population, drawn to the banking system from the Azerbaijani regions (regions of the country, except for Baku), as of March 1, 2012 amounted to 356.7 million manat or 8.26 percent of total volume of bank deposits.

The volume of deposits on Baku amounted to 3.973.0 billion manat, while the deposits in national currency hit 2.152.6 billion manat, currency - 1.820.5 billion manat.

The average interest rate for the country during the reporting period amounted to 8.8 percent, Baku - 8.9 percent.

The amount of deposits on Absheron economic region amounted to 112.6 million manat, with an average rate of 9.4 percent, Aran - 58.3 million manat at 5.0 percent, the Mountain-Shirvan - 7.9 million manat at 6.5 percent, Ganja -Gazakh - 67.1 million manat at 7.4 percent, Guba-Khachmaz - 24.56 million manat at 7.4 percent, Lankaran - 30.1 million manat at 6.4 percent, Sheki-Zagatala - 22.6 million manat at 5.8 percent, the Upper Karabakh - 9.2 million manat at 3.6 percent, Kalbajar-Lachin - 2.1 million manat at 4.9 percent, Nakhchivan - 22.8 million manat at 2.4 percent.

In January-February 2012 the volume of legal entities' deposits amounted to 2.529.2 billion manat, of which 667.3 million manat were invested in the national currency, 1.861.9 billion manat - in foreign currency.

The volume of deposits of legal entities in January-February 2012 increased by 20.14 percent compared to January-February 2012 (2.105.2 billion manat), while by 0.38 percent (2.519.5 million manat) compared to early 2012.

Banks have lowered interest rates on deposits. The average rate on deposits in manats on March 1 totaled 10.21 percent compared to 10.26 percent on January 1, 2012, 11.14 percent as of March 1, 2011.

The average rate on deposits in foreign currency amounted to 11.04 percent compared to 11.11 percent and 11.89 percent respectively.

On March 1 the average rate on deposits of individuals in manats was 10.65 percent, the first of January - 10.76 percent, at the beginning of March 2011 - 11.79 percent. The average rate on individuals' deposits in foreign currency was 11.2 percent compared to 11.27 percent and 12.08 percent respectively.

In early February the average interest rate on deposits of legal entities in manat was 6.24 per cent against 5.6 per cent on January 1, 2012 and 6.43 percent on March 1, 2011.

The average rate on deposits from corporate customers in foreign currency was 6.99 percent versus 7.02 percent and 7.18 percent respectively.

According to the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA), as of March 1, 2012 assets of banks amounted to 14.640.13 billion manat compared to 13.157.71 billion manat during the same period last year, CBA statistical report said on Saturday. During the year bank assets grew by 11.3 percent.

The total liabilities of the banking sector were estimated at 14.640.13 billion manat.

The basis of the assets of the banking sector were loans to customers at 9.223.4 billion manat (an increase of 7.9 per cent during a year), investment (1.498.7 billion manat with growth of 29.9 per cent) and money at correspondent accounts (1.282.7 billion manat with growth of 9.9 per cent). Loans and deposits issued to financial sector amounted to 582.1 million manat (with growth of 6.5 per cent).

In the structure of liabilities the bulk is deposits (6.849.3 billion manat as of March 1, 2012), an increase of 34.8 percent over the same period last year. Loans and deposits received from the financial sector, amounted to 4.469.6 billion manat, a decrease of 13.1 percent.

Capitalization of the banking sector in Azerbaijan increased by 0.44 percent in February, 2012, and by 12.7 percent compared to February 2011 amounting to 2.467.7 billion manat as of March 1, 2012

According to the CBA, the number of banks with capital exceeding 10 million manat hit 42 in February 2012, and remaining unchanged compared with the previous month and increasing by 2 units compared to February 2011. Share of this category of banks in the total volume of capital of all banks was 99.5 per cent in February and in January and 98.5 per cent in February, 2011.

At present two banks do meet the CBA requirement on capitalization (the minimum size of the capital should be 10 million manat). The first bank (with share of 0.3 per cent) has capital ranging from 5 million to 10 million manat, and the second (0.2 per cent) - from 3.5 million to 5 million manat.

Stock market

The total turnover of transactions on all trading areas of the Baku Stock Exchange (BSE) in first quarter of 2012 amounted to 2.679 billion manat, increasing by 61.78 percent compared to the same period in 2011.

The increase in the stock market is provided due to increase in the market of government securities by 72.42 percent, while corporate securities market decreased by 67.98 percent.

The government securities market reached 2.626 billion manat. It is due to increase in repo transactions by 95.25 percent and 42.87-percent increase in transactions with Central Bank notes.

Reducing of the corporate securities market, which volume amounted to 53.69 million manat in January-March is due to decrease of transactions in corporate bonds by 73.95 percent.

Comparative table on the end of trading on the BSE in the corporate sector (January - March 2012):

Comparative table on the end of trading on the BSE on the government sector (Jan - March 2012)

The securities market continued to develop in the first quarter on the background of the dynamic growth of non-oil sector of Azerbaijan and anti-inflationary monetary policy, chairman of the State Securities Committee (SSC) Rufat Aslanli said an extended board meeting of the Committee on the results of the first quarter.

Issuance of short term bands wasn't carried out from the beginning, the amount of mortgage fund's bond decreased, "tax holiday" have been liquidated. Despite this, the number of transactions in the market has grown by 10 percent compared to the same period last year, their volume increased by 1.6 times and reached 2.7 billion manat.

As a result, the share of trade turnover in the securities market in GDP increased from 16 percent during the same period last year to 22 percent in January-March 2012.

During the year the number of transactions in the country's securities market increased by 14 percent, the amount of transactions - by 1.8 times, amounting to 2.6 billion manat.

During the reporting period, the corporate securities market in the country increased by 9 percent compared to the same period of 2011 and amounted to 88.4 million manat decreasing by 50 percent. About 48 percent of the total volume of transactions with corporate securities fell to the shares, 52 per cent - on corporate bonds.