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Review of monetary sector in Azerbaijan (January-November 2012)

Analysis Materials 15 January 2013 11:56 (UTC +04:00)

Azerbaijan's strategic monetary reserves totalled $46.5 billion as of Dec.1, which is enough to cover imports of goods and services into the country within three years and nine times more than the foreign public debt, the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) said in its statement on the guidelines of monetary and financial stability policy for 2013.

In January-November, the country's strategic currency reserves increased by 14.7 per cent amounting to 70 per cent of the GDP and on this indicator Azerbaijan is among the top 15 countries of the world.

Monetary reserves which are at the disposal of the Central Bank have increased by 14 per cent since the beginning of the year, approaching $12 billion.

The Central Bank has formed a new strategy for management of its monetary reserves in 2013.

This envisages diversification of financial mechanisms in the reserves and in the geographical structure within the current global economic situation.

As of December 1, 2012 the amount of CBA currency reserves amounted to $11.686 billion compared to $ 11.743 billion (absolute maximum) as of November 1, and $10.481 billion as of January 1, 2012.

CBA announced the growth forecast for foreign exchange reserves to $ 12 billion as of 2012.

Currency market and manat rate

The stability of the exchange rate is an important factor of macroeconomic stability.

During the reporting period, the Central Bank was able to ensure the stability of the bilateral exchange rate of manat and the dollar.

In particular, the rate of the manat compared to the U.S. dollar strengthened by 2 points in Nov. 2012. Thus, the U.S. dollar dropped from 0.7849 manat per dollar since the beginning of the month to 0.7847 manat per dollar by the end of the month.

Dollar exchange rate in November compared to the majority of the world's currencies fell amid the unfavorable statistics of the U.S. economic indices.

The euro rate in Azerbaijan in November dropped, and then slowly increased due to controversial news about the economy in the eurozone.

Thus, the euro exchange rate increased from 1.0177 manat per euro from the beginning of Nov. to 1.0197 manat per euro by the end of the month. The minimum rate is 0.9953 EUR / AZN was recorded on Nov. 13, the maximum rate - 1,0197 EUR / AZN on Nov. 30. Fluctuations between the maximum and minimum values ​​amounted to 244 points.

The Azerbaijani government predicts a stable average annual rate of the national currency compared to the dollar at 0.785 AZN / USD over the next four years (2013-2016). It is projected to keep the rate at that level in 2012, while in 2010 the rate was at the level of 0,8026 AZN / USD, in 2011 - 0,7897 AZN / USD. However, the government expects gradual strengthening of the average annual exchange rate of the manat compared to the euro from 2014. So, in 2012, the rate is expected to be 1,0195 AZN / EUR, in 2013 - 1,0221 AZN / EUR, in 2014 - 1,0211 AZN / EUR, in 2015 - 1,0188 AZN / EUR, in 2016 - 1,0162 AZN / EUR.

Foreign exchange market

In November, the total volume of currency section of the Baku Interbank Currency Exchange (BBVB) on USD / AZN reached 61.803 million manat or 78.773 million in dollars. The total volume of trading in currency decreased by 9.685 million manat or 14 percent during this period compared to October.

The average daily turnover in stock exchange electronic trading system on USD / AZN in November reached about $3.751 million, while the average amount of each transaction was $2.188 million.

Around 10 banks participated in the currency trades. Around 42 trading sessions were conducted and 36 transactions were registered in "Bourse E-System of Trades" (BEST) during this month.

The exchange rate of national currency on USD / AZN_TOD in the reporting period dropped by 0.03 percent - from 0.7836 manat to 0.7838 manat per USD. The average exchange rate of the U.S. dollar compared to the manat was 0.7846 manat per $1 in November compared to 0.7849 manat in October.

Monetary market of Azerbaijan

The CBA's important task is to govern the money supply at an adequate level of macroeconomic and financial stability in terms of a continuous growth of foreign exchange reserves and high liquidity of the banking system.

The Azerbaijani Central Bank stressed an increase in all units of the money supply as of Jan.-Nov. 2012 compared to a similar period of last year and all parameters compared to early 2012. This is a result of the influence of two factors: the increase in the quantity of money in circulation and the rate of their turnover.

According to CBA, money supply (M2) (cash in circulation (outside banks) and remainders in the domestic currency on accounts of non-financial organizations, financial (excluding credit) organizations and physical entities) increased by 26.6 percent compared to the same period of 2011 and 15.02 percent compared to early 2013.

So, as of Dec. 1, 2012, the rate of M2 was 12.649.6 billion manat compared to 9.991.9 billion manat as of Dec. 1, 2011 and 10.997.2 billion manat as of early 2012.

The amount of cash money supply (M0) as of Dec. 1, 2012 hit 8.383.6 billion manat compared to 6.529.4 billion manat as of Dec. 1, 2012 and 7.158.2 billion manat as of Jan.1, 2012.

The cashless money supply increased from 3.462.5 billion manat to 4.266 billion manat per year, that is 23.2 percent.

As of Dec. 1, 2012, Broad Money Supply (M3) totaled 15.787.7 billion manat or 23.04 percent more compared to the same period of 2011 and by 13.5 percent compared to early 2012. The index hit 12.830.7 billion manat as of Dec. 1, 2011 and 13.903.2 billion manat as of early 2012.

The transaction money (M1) amounted to 10.100.5 billion manat as of Dec. 1, 2012 compared to 8.027.0 billion manat as of early Dec. 2011 and 8.824.8 billion manat as of early 2012.

Parameters of monetary market, in bln manat

Amount, Dec. 1, 2012

Money mass in extensive understating (М3)

15787,7

Money mass on manat (М2)

12649,6

Cash in manat (М0)

8383,6

Non-cash in manat

4266,0

The monetary base in Azerbaijan in 2012 showed continued growth; between January and November of 2012, expansion of the monetary base in the country totaled 9.4 billion manat.

According to the Azerbaijani Central Bank's statistics data, the annualized monetary base increased by 25.8%, as compared with the beginning of last year's 11.05%. For comparison: as of December 1, 2011 the rate was 7.4 billion manat, as of January 1, 2012 it was 8.4 billion manat.

According to the Central Bank of Azerbaijan, as of December 1st, 2012, the monetary base totaled 9.346 billion Manat compared to 9.299 billion (the previous absolute record) as of October 1st, 2011, 8.275 billion manat as of January 1, 2012 and 7.417 billion manat as of December 1, 2011.

During this reporting period, money in circulation amounted to 8.826 billion Manat, while as of Dec. 1, 2011 this figure was 6.937 billion manat, as of Jan. 1, 2012 it was 7.658.5 billion manat.

The bank reserves were equal to 579 million manat or by 6.6% more than those on Dec. 1, 2011 (542.9 million manat), and by 29.9% less than the index as of early 2012 (826.4 million manat).

The ratio of the mass of cash in circulation to the money base amounted to 93.6% during the reporting period compared to 92.6% as of Dec. 1, 2011 and 90.2% as of Jan. 1, 2012.

Credit market of Azerbaijan

Azerbaijani banks increased lending to the Azerbaijani economy by 21 percent in January-November 2012 and by 22.2 percent compared to the same period of 2011.

According to the CBA, as of early December 2012, the banks delivered loans totaling 12.042.4 billion manat (including 8.108.3 billion manat in national currency (67.3 percent) in national currency and 3.934.1 billion manat in freely convertible currency (32.7 percent)

As of early 2012, the figure was equal to 9.950.3 billion manat (6.426.5 billion in national currency and 3.523.8 billion manat in freely convertible currency), and as of December 1, 2011 - 9.852.8 billion manat (6.271.6 billion manat and 3.581.1 billion manat in freely convertible currency).

Of the total portfolio, loans worth 761.1 million manat (6.32 percent) were overdue compared to 633.8 million manat as of January 1, 2012, about 636.7 million manat as of December 1, 2011. Statistics of overdue loans does not include similar loans of non-bank credit institution Aqrarkredit. Overdue loans increased by 20.1 percent during eleven months, and by 19.5 percent in annual terms.

It should be stressed that the share of overdue loans in Azerbaijani banks is moderate. According to the CBA, no disturbing situation with these loans is observed.

Short-term loans as of early December 2012, amounted to 3.549 billion manat (including overdue loans worth 415.9 million manat) compared to 3.051.2 billion manat (including overdue loans worth 326.2 million manat) as of January 1, 2012, and 3.093.9 billion manat (326.4 million manat) as of December 1, 2011. Short-term loans in the economy have increased by 27.01 percent since early 2012 and by 14.7 percent per year. As of early December 2012, 34.3 percent of short-term loans were in freely convertible currency (1.217.6 billion manat).

Long-term loans amounted to 8.493.3 billion manat (including 345.2 million manat overdue loans) as of early December 2012 compared to 6.899.1 billion manat (307.6 million manat overdue loans) as of early 2012, 6.758.9 billion manat (310.3 million manat) as of December 1, 2011.

During 11 months of this year, long-term loans increased by 23.1 percent and by 25.7 percent per year. As of early December 2012, 32 percent of long-term loans accounted for freely convertible currency (2.716.5 billion manat).

According to the CBA, as of Dec. 1, 2012, the only state bank of the country (the International Bank of Azerbaijan) granted loans totaling 3.997 billion manat with a specific weight of 33.2 percent, and private banks - 7.724.3 billion manat with a specific weight of 64.1 percent. The remaining 2.7 percent fall to the share of non-bank credit organizations, which delivered loans worth 321.1 million manat.

The loans given to the population in Azerbaijani regions hit 1.521.01 billion manat as of Dec. 1 or 12.63 percent of the total volume of the loan portfolio of the banks.

According to the CBA, the figure was equivalent to 10.521.36 billion manat in Baku, including 6.979.74 billion manat as loans in national currency.

The interest rate of loans averaged 15.4 percent by Dec., including 14.6 percent in Baku.

The amount of crediting was equivalent to 368.5 million manat (average interest rate of 17.9 percent) in the Absheron economic region, 327.7 million manat (22.2 percent) in the Aran region, 36.3 million manat (22.1 percent) in the Mountain Shirvan region, 327.27 million manat (20.7 percent) in the Ganja-Gazakh region, 132.77 million manat (19.5 percent) in the Guba-Khachmaz region, 133.17 million manat (24.4 percent) in the Lenkoran region, 93.3 million manat (23.7 percent) in the Sheki-Zagatala region, 14.9 million manat (22 percent) in the Upper Karabakh region, 3.04 million manat (17.9 percent) in the Kalbajar-Lachin region, 83.92 million manat (12.5 percent) in the Nakhchivan region.

Most of all loans are granted to households in Azerbaijan. According to the CBA, as of Jan.-Nov. 2012 households received 35.3 percent or loans worth 4.245.1 billion manat.

The sphere of trade and services (23.8 percent or 2.866.6 billion manat) ranks second, the construction sector of real estate (9.5 percent or 1.147.7 billion manat) ranks third.

About 7.2 percent or 872.2 million manat accounted for industry, 4.5 percent (541.9 million manat) - agriculture and processing, 5.0 percent or 603 million manat - transport and communications, 3.4 percent (406.2 million manat) - power engineering, natural resources, 0.4 percent or 49.8 million manat of loans - rest areas.

As of early December 2012 Azerbaijani banks reduced interest rates on loans in local and foreign currency.

The average rate on bank lending to the economy of Azerbaijan in national currency amounted to 15.14 percent on December 1compared to 16.27 percent on January 1, 2012, and 16.24 percent - on December 1, 2011.

The average rate on bank lending in hard currency was 15.62 percent compared to 16.79 percent and 16.34 percent respectively.

By early December, the average rate on bank lending to legal entities in national currency amounted to 13.06 percent compared to 14.53 percent as of January 1, 2012 and 14.48 percent - December 1, 2011.

The average rate on bank loans to corporate clients in hard currency was 12.81 percent compared to 14.3 percent and 13.72 percent respectively.

On December 1 the average rate on bank lending to individuals in national currency amounted to 18.37 percent compared to 19.06 percent as of January 1, 2012 and 19.09 per cent - December 1, 2011.

The average rate on bank loans to individual clients in hard currency was 21.83 percent compared to 22.9 percent and 22.98 percent respectively.

According to the CBA, the attempts are being made to reduce the banks' interest rates on loans exclusively by market methods. The average interest rate on loans in the entire system is 15 percent per annum, but there are different products with different risks, so the rates vary between 25-36 percent, which is quite normal. The average interest rate for the last year decreased by one percentage point. "This is a good shift. If we take into account that the average deposit rate is 10.1 percent, there is a margin of 4.9 percent," the Central Bank said. The banks must cover the risks of these funds, while maintaining simple margin profit.

Banking sector of Azerbaijan

Over 11 months of 2012 depositary base of Azerbaijani banks increased by 10.2 per cent, and compared to the same period in 2011 increased by 17.06 percent.

As of early December the total amount of bank deposits and deposits of individuals and legal entities totaled 10.409.9 million manat compared to 9447 million manat in early 2012 and 8892.8 million manat in early December 2011.

Of this, 473.1million manat is cash in manats, of which 1835.7 million manat - deposits, 2895.3 million manat - term deposits. The funds in foreign currency amounted to 5678.9 million manat (1792.1 million manat and 3886.8 million manat, respectively).

During January-November retail deposits increased by 15.6 percent, while the volume of corporate deposits - by six percent. Compared to the same period of 2011, deposits of individual customers increased by 24.36 percent, while corporate deposits - by 11.54 percent.

By early December, the volume of individual deposits in the banks amounted 4763 million manat compared to 4119.8 million manat in early 2012 and 3830,1 million manat by December 1, 2011.

According to the CBA, some 2.804.6 billion manat (58.9 percent) were placed by the population in the national currency - manat, 1.958.4 billion manat - in freely convertible currency.

There was a situation when cash deposits of Azerbaijan's population in the national currency exceed cash deposits in foreign currency. It should be stressed that the same situation was in December, November and August.

As of 2011, 2.281.6 billion manat (55.4 percent) of the population were placed in the national currency - manat, 1.838.1 billion manat - in freely convertible currency.

Deposits of the population, drawn to the banking system from the Azerbaijani regions (areas of the country, except for Baku), as of Dec. 1, 2012 amounted to 380.14 million manat or 7.98 percent of total volume of bank deposits, the Azerbaijani Central Bank's statistics report said today.

The volume of deposits on Baku amounted to 4.382.8 billion manat, while the deposits in national currency hit 2.513.4 billion manat. The average percent rate in the country during this period was 8.4 percent while 8.6 percent in Baku.

The amount of deposits on Absheron economic region amounted to 110.7 million manat, with an average rate of 9.1 percent, Aran - 62.6 million manat at 4.9 percent, the Mountain-Shirvan - 8.46 million manat at 6.7 percent, Ganja -Gazakh - 76.8 million manat at 7.5 percent, Guba-Khachmaz - 28.2 million manat at 7.1 percent, Lankaran - 32.6 million manat at 6.3 percent, Sheki-Zagatala - 23.7 million manat at 5.6 percent, the Upper Karabakh - 10.2 million manat at 3.4 percent, Kalbajar-Lachin - 2.5 million manat at 4.9 percent, Nakhchivan - 24.3 million manat at 3.3 percent.

By early Dec., the volume of deposits of financial institutions amounted 2.752.3 billion manat compared to 2.519.5 billion manat in early 2012 and 2.459.7 billion manat by Dec. 1, 2011.

By early Dec., the volume of deposits of non-financial institutions totaled 2.894.6 billion manat compared to 2.807.6 billion manat in early 2012, and 2.603 billion manat by Dec. 1, 2011.

Total deposits of legal entities totaled 5.646.9 billion manat compared to 5.327.1 billion manat as of early this year, and 5.062.8 billion manat as of Dec. 1, 2011.

As of Dec. 1, 2012, Azerbaijani banks reduced the average rate on deposits of legal entities in foreign currency, but increased the rates for the same deposits in manat.

According to the Azerbaijani Central Bank's statistics report, the average rate on deposits in manat as of Dec. 1, 2012 was 10.04 percent compared to 10.26 percent as of Jan. 1, 2012, 10.65 percent as of Dec. 1, 2011.

The average rate on deposits in foreign currency amounted to 10.29 percent compared to 11.11 percent and 11.27 percent respectively.

As of Dec. 1, 2012, the average rate on physical entities' deposits in manat was 10.37 percent compared to 10.76 percent as of early Jan. and 11.1 percent as of early Dec. 2011. The average rate on individual clients' deposits in foreign currency amounted to 10.84 percent compared to 11.27 percent and 11.39 percent respectively.

As of early Dec. 2012, the average rate on legal entities' deposits in manat was 6.74 percent compared to 5.6 percent as of Jan. 1, 2012 and 6.15 percent as of Dec. 1, 2011. The average rate on corporate clients' deposits in foreign currency was 3.76 percent compared to 7.02 percent and 8.02 percent respectively.

Banks' financial activity

The capitalization of the Azerbaijani banking sector reached 2.468.3 billion manat by Dec. 1, 2012 increasing by 5 percent per year.

According to the CBA, the number of banks with capital exceeding 10 million manat hit 40 as of November as the previous month. The share of this category of banks in the total volume of capital of all banks in the country as of this period was 99.5 percent.

One bank's capital (with a share of 0.3 percent) was formed in the range from 5 million manat to 10 million manat, other bank's capital (0.2 percent) - from 3.5 million manat to 5 million manat manat, another bank's capital - up to 3.5 million manat.

Today 43 banks operate in Azerbaijan. The aggregate capital of the banks covering 89 percent of the assets of the entire banking sector, already meets the new demand of the CBA for capitalization of 50 million manat. This requirement comes into force from January 2014.

As of Dec. 1, 2012, the number of banks in Azerbaijan, operating with profit, was 35, the Azerbaijani Central Bank's statistics report said today.

According to the Azerbaijani Central Bank, the total profit of the banking system increased by 68.1 percent per year. As of Dec. 1, it amounted to 244.44 million manat.

The number of unprofitable banks in Jan.-Nov. reduced by 1 and hit 8 or by 4 less compared to the same period of 2011.

Eight banks' losses hit 93.31 million manat or 2.7 times more than in Jan.-Nov. 2011 (34.62 million manat).

Financial results of the banks' activity (after paying taxes) in million manat

periods

Number of profitable banks

The total profit of the banking system (profitable banks)

Number of unprofitable banks

The total loss of the banking system (unprofitable banks)

Total profit (+) or loss (-) obtained by banks

Dec. 1, 2011

32

145,43

12

34,62

110,82

Dec. 1, 2012

35

244,44

8

93,31

151,13

As of December 1, the total assets of the Azerbaijani banking sector reached a new absolute record to the amount of 16.821 billion manat compared to 16.309 billion manat as of November 1, which is considered a record level in 2012.

The assets of the banking system have a positive trend in 2012, because they hit 13.946 billion manat in early 2012. The assets have increased by 20.6 percent since early 2012 and by 23.1 percent per annum (13.664 billion manat as of December 1, 2011).

The loans given to customers to the amount of 10.493 billion manat (annual growth of 17.9 percent), investments (1.436 billion manat, increasing by 13.24 percent) and the funds on correspondent accounts (1.08 billion manat increasing by 3.9 percent) form the basis of the assets of the banking sector (62.4 percent). Loans and deposits given to the financial sector amounted to 736.4 million manat (with an increase of 33.82 percent).

The deposits (7.428 billion manat) form the main share (44.16 percent) in the structure of liabilities, increasing by 19.17 percent compared to the same period of last year. Loans and deposits obtained from the financial sector accounted for 4.883 billion manat, increasing by 14.77 percent.

The total liabilities of the Azerbaijani banking sector increased by 21.3 percent and hit 14.352 million manat in January-November 2012 and increased by 26.9 percent compared to the same period of 2011. As of beginning of the year, the index was 11.828 million manat, while 11.312 million manat as of Dec. 1, 2011.

As of Dec. 1, 2012, there were 2,240 ATMs, including 1,249 ATMs in Baku, 991 - in other cities and regions. Their total number has increased by 136 units, or 6.46 percent per annum.

As of 2012, the number of POS-terminals totaled 36,482 units, of which 33,333 are located in Baku and other cities and regions - 3,149 units as of this period of 2012. Their number has increased by 23,704 per unit, or 2.85 times since November 2011.

Much work was conducted to install POS-terminals on the eve Eurovision song contest upon the initiative of the Ministry of Taxes. Some 30,000 new POS-terminals were installed together with the banks. The level of non-cash payments in Azerbaijan rather increased. The process of installing POS-terminals in Azerbaijan must be completed by 2016. This is stated in the rules of installing and using POS-terminals in Azerbaijan, approved by the Azerbaijani Cabinet of Ministers on October 4, 2012.

Stock market

The total turnover of transactions on all trading areas of the Baku Stock Exchange (BSE) in January - November 2012 amounted to 8.63 billion manat, increasing by 31.65 percent compared to the same period in 2011, the exchange said on Monday.

Such an increase in the stock market is ensured due to increase in the market of state securities by 33 percent, while corporate securities market increased by 18.46 percent.

The state securities market reached 7.8 billion manat. It is due to increase in repo transactions by 35 percent and increase in transactions with Central Bank notes by 37 percent.

Increase in the corporate securities market amounted to 763.153 million manat in January-November.

Comparative table on the end of trading on the BSE in the corporate sector (January - November 2012):

Market segments

2012 (30.11.12)

2011 (30.11.11)

Percentage ratio

The volume of transactions,

AZN

The number of transactions

The volume of transactions

AZN

The number of transactions

Corporate bonds (placement)

37 635 335,00

73

141 713 489,45

85

26,56%

Corporate bonds (secondary market)

325 946 685,47

114

405 134 826,41

103

80,45%

Shares (placement)

387 479 137,24

227

89 163 399,10

130

434,57%

Shares (secondary market)

12 092 680,40

3 084

8 205 677,12

3 159

147,37%

The market of corporate securities, total

763 153 838,11

3 498

644 217 392,08

3 477

118,46%

Comparative table on the end of trading on the BSE on the government sector (Jan -Nov. 2012)

Market segments

2012 (30.11.12)

2011 (30.11.11)

Percentage ratio

The volume of transactions,

AZN

The number of transactions

The volume of transactions,

AZN

The number of transactions

GB Ministry of Finance - (placement)

98 537 112,31

56

232 073 000,38

128

42,46%

GB Ministry of Finance (secondary market)

21 029 020,89

19

41 570 251,84

41

50,59%

Notes (CBA) - (placement)

811 733 044,92

209

592 397 417,19

257

137,03%

Notes (CBA) - (secondary market)

138 209 486,82

26

9 555 687,77

5

1446,36%

Repo transactions

6 798 310 399,70

938

5 035 961 626,19

1 177

135,00%

Market for government securities, total

7 867 819 064,64

1 248

5 911 557 983,37

1 608

133,09%

Abbreviations:
- GB - government bonds,
- GS - government securities,
- CB - corporate bonds,
- CS - corporate securities.

The Azerbaijani National Depository Center stressed the growth of the stock market turnover in 2012. According to the center, around 325 transactions with securities with nominal value of 84.7 million were concluded in November 2012 compared to 400 transactions with securities with nominal value of 54.2 million manat in October and 150 transactions with a total nominal value of 27.5 million manat in January. The turnover as of 2012 totaled 2.897 billion manat in 4,062 transactions compared to 2.420 billion manat in 4,992 transactions for 2011.

Some 22 transactions worth 33.082 million manat were concluded in November to place the shares. Some 243 exchange transactions worth 40.747 million manat and 60 off-exchange transactions worth 10.894 million manat were also conducted. The placement on 225 transactions hit 450.703 million manat, off-exchange transactions on 555 transactions - 483.030 million manat, exchange transactions on 3,226 transactions - 2.312 billion.

The turnover does not include transactions with securities of the Finance Ministry and the Azerbaijani Central Bank.

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