Azerbaijan, Baku, 13 August / Trend corr. E.Tariverdiyeva/ Experts believe Moscow's actions in the Georgia-South Ossetia conflict area will make the international community increasingly fearful of Russia.
"The EU will also become increasingly fearful of Russia, but many EU governments will be fearful of confronting it," U.S. expert on Russia Mark Katz said.
Large-scale military operations commenced in the unrecognized South Ossetia republic in the early morning of 8 August. Georgian Army entered Tskhinvali. Later Russian troops occupied Tskhinvali and forced back the Georgian servicemen.
On 12 August, Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev said he had decided to complete the operations intended to constrain Georgia to peace, RIA Novosti reported.
According to Katz, the U.S. and the EU will not go to war with Russia over South Ossetia or even Georgia. "Russia's action, though, will lead to America reevaluating Russia as now being a serious threat and not at all a partner," Mark N. Katz, Professor of Government and Politics at George Mason University, said to Trend New via e-mail.
British expert on Georgia Ksenia Skvortsova, analyst of Control Risks at London-based Cottons Centre, believes Russia's relations with the US will be severely tested.
"In many ways, Russian involvement in South Ossetia has confirmed many of the concerns shared in the West about Russia's ambitions for continuing its influence in the Caucasus region and its reliability as a partner," she said.
"The crisis is already damaging relations between Russia and both the EU and USA for at least two reasons. First, Russian policymakers are widely interpreting the crisis as part of a growing NATO-Russia geopolitical struggle, not just a struggle between Georgia and South Osetia. Second, Russia seems to be going beyond what most Western specialists on peacekeeping would regard as a reasonable response of peacekeepers to a violation of a peace, which unfortunately for Russia reinforces a widespread Western media stereotype of Russia as being bent on restoring empire in its 'near abroad'," U.S. political scientist Henry Hale, Associate Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at George Washington University Washington, said.
According to Skvortsova, it is the United States to most severely condemn Russia for interference with the conflict in Georgia.
"President Bush has always enjoyed a close personal relationship with President Saakashvili and the US has unequivocally criticized Russia's military actions," Skvortsova said to Trend .
At the same time, Russia must remain a strategic partner for the US in many areas, particularly international security, which is why I think it will be very difficult for the US to find practical ways of deterring Russia, she said.
"In the longer term, the results of the November US elections will have a significant effect on the trajectory of Russia-US relations and US-Georgia relations as well," she said.
According to political scientists, conflict in Georgia dramatically affected Russian President's reputation amongst Western countries.
"It is likely that anyone who was hoping that the foreign policy line will soften somewhat under President Medvedev will now think otherwise and Russia will have more problems convincing international partners of its objectivity and reliability," she said.
U.S. expert Hale believes the results have been a deterioration in mutual trust and damage to Russian President Medvedev's reputation as someone capable of pushing Russian-Western relations in a positive direction. If Russia stops its military operations very soon, limiting itself to South Osetia and embracing new talks with the Georgian leadership, then Russia's relations with the USA and EU will likely recover fairly quickly, which is what I expect to happen.
The relations with EU will not be reconsidered so strictly, she said.
"The EU has also condemned the conflict but has been slightly more cautious in its assessment. This is in large part because the EU remains concerned about European energy security and Russia's continuing provision of gas deliveries to Europe, said Skvortsova.
According to expert, the latest developments will make any dialogue in the EU-Russia group more difficult and are also likely to adversely affect Russia's World Trade Organization (WTO) joining prospects.
At the beginning of 1990, South Ossetia, having the status of autonomy within Georgia, proclaimed its independence with the support of Russia. A military conflict resulted in lost of control over the territory by official Tbilisi. The countries worldwide and international organizations have not recognized independence of South Ossetia. The peaceful negotiations lasting for over ten years have not yielded any results.
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