Azerbaijan, Baku, June 11 / Trend , T.Jafarov /
Activity of population prior to the elections and the growing excitement show that the people are inclined to change the existing situation in the country. Although people's support for Mir Hussein Musavi increases his chances to win, but considering the strength of other candidates, it is possible to suppose that all will be resolved in the second round of voting.
The Secretary General of the Writers Union of Iran Shamsaddin Shamsolvaezin said that according to a poll, Mir Hussein Mousavi will win the presidential elections.
The main rivals in the election are conservatives and reformers, who have put forward two candidates, from the camp of conservatives - Mohsun Rezaee and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the reformers - Mir Hussein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.
According to the polls conducted by the Iranian media, victory is forecasted for those candidates whom they themselves support. Especially active polls are held by media outlets supporting Ahmadinejad and Mousavi. According to experts, the 1997 presidential election, in which 80 percent of voters participated, was won by reformer Mohammad Khatami, and 2005 election - conservative Mahmoud Ahmadinejad because of voter turnout.
"It is very difficult to say what choice people will make, but one thing is clear that voter turnout will be high, and it will reduce the chances of the conservatives," Iranian expert, Professor at the University of Glasgow Reza Taghizadeh told Trend .
Shamsulvaezin said that according to the internal situation in Iran, 26 million people, who did not participate in elections, now do not intend to stay beyond. "It will decide the fate of the elections, and Musavi will win. Active participation of "passive mass of people" in the election will change the events in favor of Musavi," Shamsulvaezin said by telephone from Tehran.
In 2005, due to the boycott of elections by some political forces and the minimum voter turnout, the election completed with Ahmadinejad's victory. In the Iranian province of Kurdistan more than 30 percent of voters did not participate in the elections. Currently there are 46.2 million people having the right to vote in Iran.
Taghizadeh said that the second round of elections will be held. "It is anticipated that the two candidates obtaining the largest number of votes will pass to the second round. They are Ahmadinejad and Musavi. They are expected to gain more than 50 percent of the votes. Voter turnout is expected to reach 75 percent," Taghizadeh said by telephone from London.
Some 50 percent of the votes is necessary to win the first round of elections. According to Taghizadeh, 18 million votes must be gained to win the first round,.
"Rivals in the presidential elections are four candidates. From the reformers, Karroubi may take a number of votes away from another reformer Mousavi and the conservatives - Rezaee from Ahmadinejad. For this reason, we can say that gaining 18 million votes by one candidate will not be practicable," Taghizadeh said.
According to another Iranian expert, Professor of Tehran University Sadeg Zibakalam, Mousavi has the greatest chances to win. "If to take into account that 70 percent of Iran's people are youth and students who support Mousavi, it is possible to say that Mousavi will win the presidential elections," said the expert.
"The situation in Iran shows that the population is not much satisfied with Ahmadinejad's policies, and therefore, supports Mousavi," added Zibakalam.
Ahmadinejad's opponents criticized his economic policies. During Ahmadinejad's presidency, inflation reached 25 percent, the unemployment rate is 11.2 percent.
"If the second round of elections is held, Mousavi's chances to win will increase because the majority of the population supports hin," said Taghizadeh.
He said that people considers Mousavi close to people, but Ahmadinejad - close to the state.
Presidential elections in Iran will take place on June 12.
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