Azerbaijan, Baku, Oct. 10 / Trend , A.Badalova /
World oil demand will grow by 1.4 million barrels per day to 89.2 million barrels per day in 2013, the largest U.S. bank JP Morgan said in monthly report on oil market.
Analysts see global oil demand growing by 670 kbd to 88.5 mbd in 2011, by 1.08 mbd to 89.6 mbd in 2012. Analysts predict that the level of world oil demand will be 89.5 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2011.
Of the total oil demand in 2012, 45.6 million bpd will fell to the OECD countries and 44 million bpd - non-OECD countries.
"Emerging markets are still expected to post relatively high economic growth of 5.1% in 2012 (versus 0.8% for developed markets), which drives our projection of 1.3 mbd growth in non-OECD oil demand in 2012," analysts' report said.
In 2013 oil demand in the OECD countries will only slightly increase by 0.1 mln bpd to 45.7 million bpd. Oil demand in non-OECD countries will increase by 1.3 mln bpd to 45.3 million bpd in 2013.
Oil demand in Asia will be 28.9 million bpd in 2012 and 29.7 million bpd in 2013. Most of the oil demand will fell to China - 10.1 million bpd in 2012 and 10.5 million barrels per day in 2013.
Oil supplies by OPEC
JP Morgan analysts forecast an increase in OPEC oil supply by 0.2 to 29.7 million bpd in 2012 compared to 29.5 million bpd in 2011. According to analysts' expectations, OPEC will increase oil supplies by 0.9 million to 30.6 million bpd in 2013.
Analysts expect OPEC oil supply to reach 29.8 million bpd in the third quarter of 2011 and 29.5 million bpd in the fourth quarter.
The increase in OPEC production capacity over the 2011-2013 period is driven by the start-up of several key projects including Saudi Arabia's 900 kbd Manifa project in 2013, analysts believe.
"However, excluding Libya and Iraq, we see OPEC production capacity falling next year, as investment to bring on 0.6 mbd in new projects fails to offset the decline in mature fields in OPEC," analysts report said.
The biggest challenge for OPEC, analysts believe, will be in 2012, when a resurgent Libya and Iraq are forecast to add a combined 1.4 mbd of production before the end of the year, forcing other producers to reduce production by up to 0.5 mbd if they wish to maintain a market in balance.
Today, the officially established quota of OPEC is 24.84 million bpd.
Oil supply by non-OPEC countries
According to the bank's analysts, oil supply by non-OPEC countries will rise by 0.8 million barrels to 51.2 million bpd in 2012 and by 0.3 million bpd to 51.5 million bpd in 2013.
"We retain a slightly more conservative view of 2012, down just 0.2 mbd from last month's report, which implies a more impressive growth of 0.8 mbd off the weaker 2011 baseline-of which North American nonconventional supplies contribute a large proportion," analysts' report said.