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British analysts expect big drop in oil prices

Oil&Gas Materials 15 February 2012 18:02 (UTC +04:00)

Azerbaijan, Baku, Feb. 15 /Trend A.Badalova/

World oil prices, which were supported by the positive economic expectations in early 2012, will largely drop by the end of the year, leading analysts of the British economic research and consulting company Capital Economics believe.

"Most commodity prices made a strong start to 2012, helped by increasing hopes that the U.S. will lead a strong recovery in the global economy, declining fears of a "hard landing" in China, and faith that a disorderly Greek default can be avoided," the analysts said in their report, published on Wednesday.

However, the analysts believe that all of these supports are fragile and they expect sentiment to turn negative again during the course of 2012, causing large falls in oil prices.

According to the analysts' forecasts, Brent price will drop to $85 per barrel in the second quarter of 2012 and will remain at this level till the end of the year. In 2013 analysts predict Brent price at $75 per barrel.

In the first quarter of 2012 Capital Economics' analysts expect price for Brent will amount to $100 per barrel.

The biggest downside risk for the prices is the prospect that the euro will break apart, analysts believe.

Following the auction on February 14, the price on Brent futures for March increased by $0.23 a barrel up to $118.16 per barrel. The cost of WTI futures for March on the New York Mercantile Exchange decreased by $0.17 percent to $100.74 per barrel.

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