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Oil demand in road transportation sector expected to rise

Oil&Gas Materials 24 September 2018 16:43 (UTC +04:00)

Baku, Azerbaijan, Sept.24

By Leman Zeynalova - Trend:

Oil demand in the road transportation sector is forecast to increase by around 4.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) between 2017 and 2040, from 43.6 mb/d to 47.8 mb/d, according to OPEC’s World Oil Outlook 2018.

“This increase comes mainly from Developing countries (11.2 mb/d) and marginally from Eurasia (0.4 mb/d). This more than compensates for the decline in the region of the Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development (–7.5 mb/d),” said the report.

The cartel believes that the highest demand decline is foreseen to occur in OECD Americas, which is forecast to drop by as much as 4 mb/d over the forecast period.

“In developing countries, demand is foreseen to increase rapidly, rising from 17.9 mb/d to 29.1 mb/d, an increase of almost 63 percent. It is evident that with a strong growth in the vehicle stock, oil demand will continue to grow in spite of improvements in fuel efficiency and the increased penetration of alternative fuel vehicles,” said OPEC.

Approaching the end of the forecast period, however, the faster penetration of alternative fuel vehicles is anticipated to lead to decelerating demand growth even in developing countries, although increases will still be at healthy rates. India and the Middle East and Africa are the exceptions.

The incremental demand in these two regions is expected to continue at almost the same rate throughout the forecast period as a result of the still significantly expanding car stock, the cartel believes.

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