BAKU, Azerbaijan, May 4
By Leman Zeynalova - Trend:
Renewables are the only energy source likely to experience demand growth across the remainder of 2020, regardless of the length of lockdown or strength of recovery, Trend reports citing the International Energy Agency (IEA).
“If lockdowns are shorter and the global recovery is more rapid, the decline in global energy demand across 2020 could be limited to 3.8 percent (which is still four times the decline during the global financial crisis),” reads the report.
IEA believes that shorter lockdowns and a more rapid recovery would limit the decline in full-year oil demand to around 6 percent– with Q2-Q4 averaging a greater decline than in Q1 –and halve the impact on full year energy demand for coal, gas and nuclear, signalling a recovery of demand in Q2-Q4.
On the other hand, a possible second wave of the pandemic or a slower recovery could exacerbate the potential declines by fuel in 2020, according to the report.
Renewables demand is expected to increase because of low operating costs and preferential access to many power systems. Recent growth in capacity, with some new projects coming online in 2020, will also boost output. Biofuels however, are likely to see demand decline, directly impacted by lower transport activity.
Oil demand could drop by 9 percent or 9 mb/d on average across the year, returning oil consumption to 2012 levels.
Coal demand could decline by 8 percent, in large part due to a fall in electricity demand of nearly 5 percent over the course of the year, pushing down output from coal-fired generators by more than 10 percent. The recovery of coal demand for industry and electricity generation in China limits the global decline in coal demand.Gas demand across the full year could fall much further than in Q1 2020, because of reduced demand in power and industry applications.Nuclear power demand would also fall in response to lower electricity demand.