BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 8
By Leman Zeynalova - Trend:
OPEC’s output may drop to the lowest level since November 1991, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its July Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO), Trend reports.
EIA forecasts OPEC crude oil production will fall below 22.5 million b/d in July, a 7.9 million b/d decline from April.
“If OPEC production declines to forecast levels in July, it would be the group’s lowest level of crude oil production since November 1991,” reads the report.
After July, EIA expects OPEC will continue to limit production, but to a lesser degree as cuts are relaxed, global oil demand rises, and compliance lessens.
With increases in forecast global oil demand growth in 2021, EIA assumes that OPEC members will further increase production in the face of large oil supply/demand imbalances that lead to large stock drawdowns and rising oil prices.
EIA forecasts that OPEC crude oil production will average 29.2 million b/d in 2021, up 3.2 million b/d from 2020 but about the same as 2019 levels.
EIA estimates that OPEC production of other liquids will decline to 4.8 million b/d on average in 2020, down from 5.4 million b/d in 2019. “The 2020 decrease in production of other liquids is the result of less associated liquids production stemming from a reduction in crude oil production because of the OPEC+ cuts. The decrease in production of other liquids in 2021 is the result of less expected condensate output in Iran.”
Following the 11th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting held June 6, all Participating Countries:
Reconfirmed the existing arrangements under the April agreement.
Subscribed to the concept of compensation by those countries who were unable to reach full conformity (100 per cent) in May and June, with a willingness to accommodate it in July, August and September, in addition to their already agreed production adjustment for such months.
Agreed the option of extending the first phase of the production adjustments pertaining in May and June by one further month.
Recognized that the continuity of the current agreement is contingent on them fulfilling elements 1 and 2 above.
Agreed without dissent that the full and timely implementation of the agreement remains inviolable, based on the five key elements, and endorsed the ‘Statement on the Declaration of Cooperation.
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