BAKU, Azerbaijan, May 12
By Leman Zeynalova - Trend:
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects global consumption to average almost 97.0 million b/d in the second quarter, a 2.2 million b/d increase from the first quarter, before increasing to 98.9 million b/d in the third quarter and to 100.0 million b/d in the fourth quarter, Trend reports.
“Oil demand in Asia presents a downside risk to the forecast. India, the world’s third largest consumer of oil, has rising COVID-19 cases. The degree to which the increase in cases will affect oil demand is currently unclear. We reduced oil consumption in India by 0.3 million b/d on average during the second quarter of 2021 from the April STEO. This forecast is highly uncertain, as future case counts and their effect on mobility is unclear. We expect global oil production to continue to increase in the second half of the year to keep pace with rising demand. Increased production puts downward pressure on crude oil prices: the Brent price falls to $63/b in the third quarter and $60/b in the fourth quarter of 2021,” reads the latest EIA report.
The Administration estimates that the world consumed 96.2 million barrels per day (b/d) of petroleum and liquid fuels in April, an increase of 15.8 million b/d from April 2020 but 4.0 million b/d less than April 2019 levels.
“We forecast that global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will average 97.7 million b/d for all of 2021, which is a 5.4 million b/d increase from 2020. We forecast that consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will increase by 3.7 million b/d in 2022 to average 101.4 million b/d.
We expect OPEC+ to begin increasing production in May, which is consistent with the production targets announced at its early April meeting. OPEC+ plans to revisit its production targets at the next meeting, scheduled for June 1,” says the report.
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