BAKU, Azerbaijan, Sept.9
By Leman Zeynalova - Trend:
Global oil demand growth in 2021 is downgraded to 5.5 mb/d from 5.7 mb/d, Trend reports with reference to the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies (OIES).
“Repeated pandemic waves resulting in restrictions and caution over the timeline and magnitude of policy responses to the pandemic are weighing on the global demand outlook in H2 2021, with y/y growth downgraded by 0.35 mb/d to 5.3 mb/d from 5.6 mb/d previously,” OIES said in its latest insight.
Global demand growth in 2022 remains strong and is slightly elevated to 3.3 mb/d from 3.2 mb/d, with expectations building for a relatively stronger rebound next year.
Global oil supply is expected to grow by 1.6 mb/d in 2021 and 6.4 mb/d in 2022. The supply outlook is mainly driven by OPEC+ decision to gradually increase its output towards September 2022, the potential return of Iran and the US return to growth next year by a decent 0.8 mb/d y/y. The market deficit in 2021 is estimated at -0.8 mb/d, followed by a 2.3 mb/d surplus in 2022. The expected surplus in 2022 highlights the continuous importance of OPEC+ balancing role, as favourable supply/demand conditions could narrow the projected surplus by 1.6 mb/d to 0.75 mb/d.
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