BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 25. At the COP28 climate summit, nearly 200 countries made significant collective pledges to meet the Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. The summit, held in Dubai, saw governments setting key goals for the first time, including the ambitious target of tripling global renewable energy capacity by the end of the decade.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) notes that based on their ambitions and plans, nearly half of the countries analyzed aim to more than double their total installed renewable power capacity by 2030, with some aiming for even faster progress. If all these ambitions are realized, global installed renewable capacity would reach 2.2 times the 2022 levels by 2030. Nearly 30 countries, accounting for almost three-quarters of global ambition, plan to increase their renewable capacity by two to three times by 2030, led by China, the United States, India, Germany, and Spain.
China’s rapid expansion of renewable capacity is expected to play a crucial role in the global deployment pace through 2030. Although China has not published an explicit 2030 target for total renewable capacity, it is projected to exceed its 2030 target of 1,200 GW of solar PV and wind this year. IEA estimates, considering recent trends, indicate that China's renewable capacity in 2030 will be 2.5 times its 2022 level.
Current policies and plans in advanced economies suggest almost doubling their renewable capacity by 2030, contributing nearly 40 percent of the global ambition. European countries are at the forefront, contributing one-fifth of the global total. European Union member states account for over 80 percent of the region’s contribution, primarily based on their draft national energy and climate plans (NECPs).
The United States and Canada together aim to install close to 1,000 GW of renewable capacity by 2030, representing 13 percent of global ambition. Emerging and developing economies, excluding China, also plan to double capacity, with strong ambition from India leading the way.
In Latin America, where renewables already account for more than 60 percent of the region’s electricity generation due to the longstanding use of hydropower, country ambitions collectively aim for 1.3 times the current installed capacity by 2030. Brazil alone is responsible for more than half of the region’s total ambition. Sub-Saharan Africa and Eurasia are targeting installed renewable capacities of 3.2 and 1.3 times today’s levels, respectively. The Middle East and North Africa region shows the highest growth factor, with ambitions set at 4.5 times the current base, led by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Algeria.
The IEA’s report underscores the critical need for international cooperation and accelerated efforts to meet these ambitious targets and tackle the climate crisis effectively.
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