BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 16. The World Bank believes that the per capita income in Azerbaijan may be at least 40 percent higher by 2050 compared to the current growth trajectory on which Azerbaijan is located, WB Country Manager for Azerbaijan Sarah Michael said during the presentation of the WB report, Trend reports.
"Global growth is forecasted to slow significantly in the second half of this year, and weak growth is expected to continue in 2024. Inflationary pressures are likely to persist, while tight monetary policy is expected to continue to negatively affect economic growth. We expect that this will continue to create challenging global conditions for developing countries and emerging markets," she said.
She noted that at today's events, in particular at the panel discussion, it will also be specifically discussed what these global trends can mean for Azerbaijan.
The Government adopted a new socio-economic development strategy until 2026 last year, which includes an ambitious set of programs, investments and reforms to revive and accelerate economic growth and social welfare. The strategy is aimed at annual GDP growth of 3 to 4 percent in the medium term, while GDP growth in the non-oil and gas sectors should be about 5 percent.
Growth will be hampered by declining oil production and an aging population in Azerbaijan, and global factors and trends are likely to create additional problems and uncertainty.
“We believe that achieving these growth targets is possible. Azerbaijan will need to continue the transition from the old growth model focused on oil and gas revenues and public investment. Our long-term growth forecasts show that under the current growth model, GDP per capita could increase by as little as 10 percent or so over the next 30 years,” Michael said.
“Azerbaijan will remain an upper-middle-income country and will not reach the status of a high-income country by 2050 in this scenario,” she added.
“But there are also much more optimistic opportunities with a new growth model focused on supporting a dynamic private sector with the assistance of the state: a more diversified economy, stronger human capital and deeper economic integration with a number of realistic investments and reforms in these areas. This would greatly contribute to achieving Azerbaijan's growth ambitions," she said.