Azerbaijan, Baku, 28 November / Trend corr. U.Sadigova/ International organizations will not be able to force Israel to lift the blockade from Gaza Strip until a permanent ceasefire is established in Palestine.
"This issue will be resolved as a part of a larger package between Hamas and Israel. The West, and the Arab and Muslim worlds, seem not to have the ability to solve the issue," Ziad al Asali, President of the American Task Force on Palestine (ATFP) said to Trend via e-mail.
Blockade of the Gaza Strip by the Israeli Government commenced in early November after resumption of exchange of fire between Tsahal army and Hamas. UN Secretary General urges Israel to lift the blockade as soon as possible.
According to Asali, Hamas-Israel conflict has a long history. Handover of Israeli serviceman Gilad Shalit, who was captured by Hamas in summer 2006, remains the key problem of the ongoing conflict.
There is always a possibility of Israeli military action against Gaza until a document on strategic cooperation in the region is developed between Palestine's governing Fatah party and Hamas movement, said Asali.
The heads of the Palestinian Government and Hamas lack a joint strategic plan to overpass the domestic political crisis, said Asali.
Absence of an exit strategy is a risk, because other regional parties may be engaged in the conflict with Israel and the domestic political conflict, he said.
The split between Hamas and Fatah was immeasurably complicated last summer by Hamas Takeover of Gaza so it has acquired a geographic separational dimension, said Asali.
According to the expert, ultimately such differences can be resolved either by force, which is not an option because of the geographic separation, or by elections.
Asali believes the West Bank and Gaza will be under different political regimes until all Palestinian parties agree to hold elections to the Legislative Council prior to January 2010.
"If life on the ground improves under the leadership of the Palestinian Authority people in Gaza as well as the West Bank will support it, if not Hamas will have the upper hand," he said
Nothing much will happen after January 9, 2009, the time of the end of term of President Abbas, he said.
The Palestinian basic law stipulates that the elections for the presidency and Legislative Council have to take place at the same time, i.e. in January 2010. According to Asali, changes may take in the domestic Palestinian policy in this period.
"There is a plethora of organizations in the West dealing with the Palestinian issue. On the whole they are not very effective because they are not in the main stream of policy and the political centre in the West," said Asali.
"Decisions about Palestine/Israel are dominated by the elite and official establishment," he said.
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