Azerbaijan, Baku, Sept.28. / Trend E.Tariverdiyeva /
European Expert on Caucasus, Licinia Simao, believes the possibility of both Parliaments ratifying the protocols is the big question.
"According to the established time frame, in case the Turkish and the Armenian parliaments confirm the protocols and do not propose any major amendments that would demand the executives to go back to the negotiating table, the border should be opened two months after ratification," member of University of Coimbra, Simao wrote to trend News in an e-mail. "This might mean before the end of the year, but it also might mean that nothing will happen during 2009."
The protocol's final version will be signed by foreign ministers of Armenia and Turkey, Ahmet Davudoglu and Edward Nalbandian on Oct.10 or Oct.11, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan told Trend in an exclusive interview.
On Aug. 31, Turkey and Armenia in the talks mediated by Switzerland reached an agreement to launch "internal political consultations" to sign the Protocol on Establishment of Diplomatic Relations and Protocol on Development of Bilateral Relations, the Turkish Foreign Ministry said.
"Political consultations will be completed within six weeks, and following that two protocols will be signed and submitted to the two countries' parliaments for approval," the ministry said.
According to Simao, this process of ratification will certainly need some time for discussions and negotiations among the political forces in both countries to be held.
The possibility of both Parliaments ratifying the protocols is the big question mark hanging over the process at this point, the expert added.
The objections on both countries to an agreement are known, and nationalist parties on both sides have said they will not ratify it.
Even the AKP party in Turkey, which the Prime-minister Recep Erdogan is leading, has still to make its position clear, having said that in principle, it will make ratification conditional on visible advances on the Nagorno Karabakh negotiations, Simao added.
"However, for Armenian leaders, opposition at home has also increased its voice, with former Armenian President Levon Ter-Petrosyan's party joining efforts for the moment with the nationalists Dashnaks to oppose the deal," the expert added.
According to Simao, should any advances in the Karabakh peace process appear to run against Armenian interests, this could prove an added difficulty for President Sargsyan's hopes of opening the border with Turkey by the end of the year and eventually crossing the border to attend the return match in Ankara, on October 14.
The conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988 when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Armenian armed forces have occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan since 1992, including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and 7 surrounding districts. Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a ceasefire agreement in 1994. The co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group - Russia, France, and the U.S. - are currently holding the peace negotiations.
President Sargsyan has also been consulting with Diaspora groups which traditionally have opposed any normalization of relations with Turkey without recognition of the genocide by the ottoman Turks.
The Armenian Republican party which does not have a majority in parliament will have to negotiate with other smaller parties, the expert said.
"Although the process of ratification by the two parliaments might not be swift, the symbolic importance of having President Sargsyan travelling across the land border to attend the football match is high. This might mean that some agreement might be reached to allow this to happen as an exceptional situation," Simao said.
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