BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 22. In its recent piece, Politico dropped the bombshell headline "Europe’s Azerbaijani Gas Gambit — Good News for Russia," attempting to undermine Azerbaijan's role in the global energy arena. But while the headline screams controversy, the content falls flat, relying on questionable logic and cherry-picked data. This is not just a misrepresentation—it’s a glaring disservice to the facts and an unwarranted swipe at a reliable player in Europe’s energy security.
Let’s Talk Facts
In an era of geopolitical uncertainty, Azerbaijan stands tall as a beacon of stability and growth in the energy sector. The Shah Deniz field, one of the region’s most significant gas projects, anchors this success.
2024 exports: Azerbaijan delivered 20.7 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas, a 4.6% year-over-year increase.
Where it went:
10.6 bcm went to Europe under long-term EU contracts.
8.2 bcm flowed to Turkey, a strategic ally.
1.9 bcm served Georgia, cementing regional ties.
Russian Gas Imports: The Real Story
Here’s where Politico gets it spectacularly wrong. Allegations of Azerbaijan's "dependence" on Russian gas are not just misleading—they're outright wrong.
2024 Russian gas imports: a mere 141.6 million cubic meters, equating to just $26 million in value.
Context matters: That’s less than 1% of Azerbaijan's total exports. These imports were strictly temporary, addressing short-term domestic needs without touching export capacity.
Azerbaijan’s energy independence isn’t theoretical—it’s backed by some of the world’s most advanced gas infrastructure, including:
Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP): A lifeline for European markets, now expanded to handle 31 bcm per year.
Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP): Connecting Azerbaijan to Europe via Greece and Italy, it’s set to scale from 10 bcm to 20 bcm annually.
Busting the Dependency Myth
The heart of Politico’s argument—that Azerbaijan critically relies on Russian gas—doesn’t hold water:
Azerbaijan boasts 2.5 trillion cubic meters of gas reserves, securing decades of stable supply.
Its production capacity can hit 50 bcm annually, dwarfing domestic demand.
In 2023, Azerbaijan delivered 5% of the EU’s total gas imports, playing a pivotal role in weaning Europe off Russian energy. With this track record, branding Azerbaijan as "dependent" on Russia isn’t just wrong—it’s irresponsible.
Europe’s Strategic Partnership with Azerbaijan
The growth of Azerbaijani gas exports isn’t happenstance; it’s central to Europe’s post-Russia energy pivot. The 2022 EU-Azerbaijan Energy Memorandum commits to scaling supplies to 20 bcm per year by 2027.
In 2024, Azerbaijan stepped up:
Exported 12.8 bcm to Europe, an 8.6% increase year-over-year.
Maintained 100% export stability through domestic production.
The EU itself acknowledges Azerbaijani gas as a “transitional fuel”—a bridge to renewables that aligns with Europe’s climate goals.
The Re-Export Red Herring
Among Politico’s most egregious claims is the suggestion that Azerbaijan re-exports Russian gas under its own name. Let’s break it down:
Economic reality: Russian gas is more expensive than domestically produced Azerbaijani gas. Re-exporting it as Azerbaijani would be economically absurd.
Legal barriers: EU contracts demand strict transparency, making such a maneuver legally impossible.
Azerbaijan’s export processes are audited by global firms like PwC and Deloitte, ensuring compliance with international standards.
Azerbaijan’s Unshakeable Role
Amid global energy instability, Azerbaijan isn’t just an exporter—it’s a stabilizer. While other traditional suppliers like Algeria and Qatar face output declines and logistical bottlenecks, Azerbaijan keeps delivering.
It’s no surprise, then, that unfounded narratives like Politico’s emerge. Azerbaijan’s growing influence is a thorn in the side of competitors who are losing their grip on global markets.
The Bigger Picture
Energy geopolitics is as much about perception as reality, and Politico’s article reads like a calculated play in the broader information war. But the facts remain indisputable:
Azerbaijan has consistently demonstrated reliability and transparency.
Its gas is critical to Europe’s transition away from coal and Russian dependency.
It operates with one of the most advanced and scrutinized energy infrastructures globally.
Final Takeaway
The real question isn’t whether Azerbaijan is a reliable partner—it’s why some media outlets are so intent on questioning a country that’s doing everything right. As Europe navigates its energy transition, Azerbaijan is an ally it can count on. It’s time to ditch the narratives and give credit where it’s due.
When it comes to energy security, Baku isn’t just a player—it’s a cornerstone. And no amount of misinformed rhetoric can change that.
Azerbaijan’s Natural Gas Reserves: A Dual Pillar for Domestic Stability and Export Growth
Azerbaijan holds a commanding position in the natural gas sector, with reserves that not only ensure domestic energy security but also fuel its commitments to international partners.
Shah Deniz Field: As the largest natural gas field in the region, it produced 25 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2023 alone.
Additional Sources: Major fields like Absheron, Umid, and Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli bolster Azerbaijan’s capacity to meet rising energy demands.
Verified Accuracy: All production data undergo rigorous verification by independent auditors and are transparently published by Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Energy.
Transparency as Azerbaijan’s Hallmark
Azerbaijan’s energy policy is rooted in transparency, leaving no room for ambiguities regarding production volumes or the origins of its gas.
Certification of Origin: Azerbaijani gas complies with the EU’s stringent requirements for source documentation.
Independent Audits: Top-tier firms like Deloitte and PwC audit production and export figures, ensuring accuracy and preventing manipulation.
Transparent Pipelines: Gas flows through TANAP and TAP, where every cubic meter is meticulously tracked from entry to exit, eliminating any possibility of substitution.
As global energy markets face unprecedented instability, Azerbaijan's commitment to transparency enhances its reputation as a trusted supplier.
Azerbaijan: A Strategic Partner for Europe
Azerbaijan’s significance to Europe has grown exponentially, particularly in light of geopolitical shifts and energy market disruptions:
Long-Term Cooperation: Sanctions on Russian energy have heightened Azerbaijan’s strategic value as a reliable partner for the European Union.
Infrastructure Investments: Baku is proactively expanding its gas transportation network to accommodate growing European demand.
Diversifying EU Energy Supply: Azerbaijani gas is an indispensable component of Europe’s strategy to reduce dependence on Russian energy.
Addressing Re-Export Claims: Myths vs. Economic Realities
Assertions about Azerbaijan re-exporting Russian gas ignore basic economic and operational truths:
Cost Inefficiency: Russian gas is more expensive than Azerbaijan’s domestically produced gas. Factor in transportation and taxes, and the claim becomes even less credible.
Sufficient Resources: In 2024, Azerbaijan exported 20.7 bcm of gas, including 10.6 bcm to Europe. These volumes were entirely supported by Azerbaijan’s own production.
Contractual Integrity: The EU’s long-term agreements with Azerbaijan are built on transparency. Any deviation, such as re-exporting gas, would breach contracts and erode trust.
International Standards and Trust
Azerbaijan’s energy policy adheres to rigorous international standards, ensuring the integrity of its exports:
EU Certification: All Azerbaijani gas exported to Europe undergoes mandatory certification, verifying its origin.
Independent Verification: Deloitte, PwC, and other leading firms ensure production and export volumes are accurate and transparent.
Sophisticated Monitoring: TANAP and TAP pipelines incorporate advanced monitoring systems that track gas flow in real-time, ruling out substitution or blending.
These measures render allegations of re-export not only baseless but demonstrably false.
Production Capacity: Independence Backed by Data
Claims that Azerbaijan cannot meet Europe’s growing energy needs fall flat in light of the evidence:
Vast Reserves: Per the BP Statistical Review, Azerbaijan holds 2.5 trillion cubic meters of proven natural gas reserves, enabling production of up to 50 bcm annually—more than enough to meet domestic and export commitments.
Consistent Growth: In 2023, Azerbaijan produced 48 bcm of gas, underscoring its capacity to support sustained energy sector growth.
Future Investments: Joint ventures with international companies like BP, SOCAR, and TPAO ensure continued development of key projects, such as Shah Deniz, Absheron, and Umid.
Sustainable Growth in Exports: Azerbaijan’s Strategic Role in Europe’s Energy Future
Amidst global energy turmoil, Azerbaijan continues to rise as a reliable and indispensable partner for Europe. The country’s steady increase in gas exports underscores its commitment to meeting EU demands and securing energy stability:
2023: Azerbaijan exported 11.8 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas to Europe.
2024: Exports rose by 8.6%, reaching 12.8 bcm.
2027 Projection: Under the Strategic Partnership Memorandum with the EU, gas exports are expected to hit 20 bcm annually.
These milestones demonstrate Azerbaijan’s ability to fulfill its commitments using domestic resources while continuously expanding its export potential.
Infrastructure Investments: Guaranteeing Supply Stability
A cornerstone of Azerbaijan’s success in the energy sector is its robust and modernized infrastructure. Strategic upgrades to its gas transportation network have bolstered supply reliability and flexibility:
Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP)
Serves as the primary route for delivering Azerbaijani gas to European markets.
Recent upgrades increased its capacity from 16 bcm to 31 bcm annually, future-proofing its ability to handle rising demand.
Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP)
Directly connects Azerbaijan to Europe via Greece, Albania, and Italy.
In 2024, TAP’s capacity reached 10 bcm, with plans to expand to 20 bcm in the near future.
Southern Gas Corridor (SGC)
A flagship $40 billion initiative that integrates TANAP, TAP, and other pipelines.
This ambitious project is one of the energy sector’s most transformative developments in recent decades.
These advancements position Azerbaijan as a dependable supplier in the increasingly competitive global energy market.
International Support: Validation of Azerbaijan’s Role
Azerbaijan’s strategic importance to Europe has not gone unnoticed. The EU and other international organizations have provided substantial financial and political backing:
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) allocated $1 billion for the modernization of TANAP and TAP.
The European Commission designated Azerbaijan as a priority gas supplier, citing its role in reducing Europe’s dependence on Russian gas.
This recognition highlights Azerbaijan’s integral role in the EU’s broader energy strategy.
Azerbaijan: A Benchmark of Reliability in Energy Supply
Supply Consistency
Azerbaijan continues to ensure stable growth in exports by leveraging its domestic resources and expanding infrastructure:
Transparency: Adherence to rigorous international certification and auditing standards guarantees the authenticity of Azerbaijani gas supplies.
Strategic Cooperation: EU support underscores trust in Azerbaijan’s reliability and strategic foresight.
While other traditional suppliers struggle, Azerbaijan has maintained its upward trajectory:
Algeria: Gas exports fell to 9.6 bcm in 2023, marking an 18% decline.
Qatar: Faced logistical hurdles as the world’s largest LNG exporter.
Azerbaijan’s robust pipeline network ensures consistent deliveries, cementing its role as a cornerstone of Europe’s energy security.
Expert Endorsements: Credible Voices on Azerbaijan’s Impact
International energy experts continue to highlight Azerbaijan’s reliability and strategic significance:
John Roberts, Energy Security Analyst: “Over the last decade, Azerbaijan has invested billions in production and infrastructure. Claims about insufficient capacity do not reflect reality.”
Maroš Šefčovič, Vice President of the European Commission: “The Southern Gas Corridor is a prime example of successful cooperation, enabling Europe to reduce dependence on Russia and secure stable gas supplies.”
Gareth Winters, Energy Market Analyst: “Azerbaijan’s purchases of Russian oil cannot be interpreted as dependence. This is standard practice driven by economic logic.”
Jonathan Elster, Energy Policy Expert: “Azerbaijan remains a major oil and gas exporter. Assertions about dependence on Russia are far from the truth.”
Fatih Birol, Head of the International Energy Agency (IEA): “Azerbaijan plays a vital role in Europe’s transition to low-carbon energy. Its projects meet ecological standards and contribute to decarbonization.”
Edward Chow, Senior Fellow at CSIS: “Azerbaijan provides transparent data on its export volumes. Any allegations of re-export require evidence, which is lacking.”
Amos Hochstein, U.S. Special Advisor for Energy Security: “EU cooperation with Azerbaijan strengthens regional energy stability and reduces Europe’s reliance on Russia.”
Preparedness for New Challenges: Azerbaijan’s Sustainable Energy Leadership
Azerbaijan continues to reinforce its status as a global energy leader, leveraging its extensive resources, state-of-the-art infrastructure, and forward-looking strategies. Several critical factors drive this growth:
Production Growth: With 2.5 trillion cubic meters of gas reserves and annual production now at 50 billion cubic meters (bcm), Azerbaijan consistently meets its export obligations while ensuring domestic energy security.
Infrastructure Modernization: Advanced projects like TANAP, TAP, and the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) offer unparalleled stability and flexibility in energy transportation, positioning Azerbaijan as a dependable energy hub.
International Recognition: The European Union's recognition of Azerbaijan as a strategic partner underscores its pivotal role in diversifying Europe’s energy supply and strengthening its security.
Efficient Resource Management
Azerbaijan has demonstrated remarkable efficiency in managing its energy imports and exports:
In 2024, Azerbaijan imported 150,000 tons of Russian oil, accounting for less than 0.5% of its total production. This oil, refined at the Heydar Aliyev Refinery, is used for domestic fuel oil production and does not affect export commitments.
In 2022, Azerbaijan exported 19 million tons of oil to the EU, covering approximately 5% of Europe’s total oil consumption.
These figures reinforce Azerbaijan’s ability to sustain its export commitments while efficiently meeting internal demands.
Strategic Importance in Europe’s Energy Landscape
Azerbaijan’s energy strategy has earned robust support from the EU, enhancing its position as a cornerstone of Europe’s energy diversification efforts:
Azerbaijani energy projects have drawn strong backing from the European Commission and financial institutions such as the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).
Azerbaijan’s growing influence has stirred dissatisfaction among competing suppliers, including Russia, as it cements its role as a key contributor to Europe’s energy security.
Balancing Growth and Climate Goals
Azerbaijan’s consistent energy sector progress reflects its commitment to aligning growth with global climate objectives:
In 2024, the Heydar Aliyev Refinery modernization project was completed, boosting capacity to 7.5 million tons of oil annually.
Development of fields such as Umid-Babek and Absheron ensures stable production while expanding export potential.
Critics questioning Azerbaijan’s gas production increases fail to account for the broader context:
In 2022, Azerbaijan signed a Strategic Partnership Memorandum with the EU to increase gas exports to 20 bcm annually by 2027.
Gas exports to Europe rose 8.6% in 2024, reaching 12.8 bcm.
The EU classifies Azerbaijani gas as a “transitional fuel”, critical for reducing carbon footprints while accelerating the shift to renewable energy.
This trajectory aligns seamlessly with Europe’s dual goals of diversifying energy sources and transitioning to a low-carbon future.
Baku’s Environmental Leadership
Azerbaijan actively implements cutting-edge environmental technologies to minimize the ecological footprint of its energy operations:
Global Methane Pledge: SOCAR has committed to methane emission reductions as part of this global initiative.
Eco-Friendly Pipelines: Emission monitoring systems on TANAP and TAP pipelines make Azerbaijani gas transport among the world’s greenest.
Carbon Capture: Ongoing upgrades to production facilities integrate carbon capture technologies, reducing emissions and supporting decarbonization.
These initiatives exemplify Azerbaijan’s commitment to environmental responsibility and sustainable energy practices.
Driving the Global Energy Transition
In a world transitioning to a low-carbon economy, Azerbaijan stands out for its proactive approach to renewable energy and climate responsibility:
Solar Power: In 2024, Azerbaijan, in partnership with the UAE, inaugurated a 230 MW solar power plant, marking a major milestone in diversifying its energy mix.
Renewable Energy Expansion: By 2030, Azerbaijan aims to derive 30% of its energy from renewable sources, fully aligning with international climate targets.
Hydrogen Technologies: SOCAR is advancing hydrogen energy technologies, fostering innovation and accelerating the transition to a low-carbon economy.
These investments enable Azerbaijan to strike a balance between fulfilling its export commitments and achieving ambitious climate goals.
Natural Gas: The Backbone of the EU’s Energy Transition
As Europe accelerates its shift from coal to renewable energy, natural gas has emerged as a critical transitional fuel. Azerbaijan’s gas exports play an indispensable role in this process, serving as a reliable and sustainable bridge to cleaner energy systems.
In 2023, natural gas accounted for 24% of the EU’s energy needs, significantly reducing reliance on coal, which emits twice as much CO₂.
Azerbaijani gas has been particularly crucial for Southern and Central European countries like Italy, Bulgaria, and Greece, where it supports the reduction of high-carbon energy sources.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), natural gas remains an essential element of the EU’s energy transition, helping countries lower their carbon footprint.
By aligning its strategy with international climate standards and European energy needs, Azerbaijan has cemented its position as a cornerstone of global energy stability and a contributor to a greener future.
Azerbaijan’s Role in Europe’s Energy Transition: Facts Over Fiction
In an era of geopolitical turbulence and energy insecurity, Azerbaijan’s contributions to Europe’s energy transition stand as a testament to its reliability and strategic importance.
The Facts Speak for Themselves
Consistent Growth in Exports: Azerbaijan has steadily increased gas exports to meet rising EU demands.
Energy Independence: By leveraging domestic resources, Azerbaijan minimizes external influences on its energy sector.
Robust Infrastructure: A well-established network, including TANAP and TAP, and substantial gas reserves ensure stable, long-term supply.
Politico’s Baseless Allegations
Despite these achievements, Politico recently published a critique aiming to cast doubt on Azerbaijan’s energy strategy. However, the article lacks substance, resorting to misrepresentation and speculative claims.
Recognizing Azerbaijan’s Strategic Contributions
Rather than questioning Azerbaijan’s successes, the international community should:
Acknowledge Azerbaijan’s Role: As a critical partner in diversifying Europe’s energy supply and reducing dependency on high-carbon fuels, Azerbaijan plays a vital role in shaping the continent’s energy future.
Focus on Results: Azerbaijan’s growing export capacity and adherence to international standards underline its commitment to energy security and climate goals.
Partners like Azerbaijan are laying the foundation for a sustainable and secure energy framework that benefits Europe and beyond.
Disinformation in Energy Politics: Politico’s Misstep
The Politico article is less about energy facts and more about undermining Azerbaijan’s growing influence on the global energy stage.
An Information Campaign: As Azerbaijan strengthens its position, accusations of dependency or re-export of Russian gas appear to be part of a coordinated effort to discredit the country.
Motivations at Play: These claims raise more questions about the intentions of Politico’s authors than about Azerbaijan’s role as a trusted energy supplier.
Azerbaijan Under Scrutiny Amid Rising Competition
The intensifying competition for global energy resources has inevitably placed Azerbaijan under the spotlight:
Competitors’ Frustrations: Azerbaijan’s consistent performance and strategic partnerships have irritated competitors losing ground in the global market.
Unfounded Criticism: Efforts to undermine Azerbaijan, as seen in the Politico article, are thinly veiled attempts to erode trust in the country’s energy leadership.
Time for Media Objectivity
Western media must transition away from biased narratives and speculative reporting, particularly on critical issues like energy security.
Azerbaijan’s Proven Record: The country has consistently demonstrated its reliability and importance in meeting Europe’s energy needs.
Recognizing Key Players: Instead of perpetuating unfounded accusations, media outlets should highlight Azerbaijan’s achievements in contributing to a more secure and sustainable global energy landscape.
Azerbaijan as a Pillar of Energy Stability
In the face of mounting global challenges, Azerbaijan remains steadfast as a trusted partner for Europe. By prioritizing transparency, adhering to international standards, and maintaining robust infrastructure, Azerbaijan delivers on its commitments while advancing a sustainable energy future.
Media narratives that seek to distort this reality do a disservice not just to Azerbaijan, but to the broader conversation about global energy security. It’s time to focus on facts and recognize Azerbaijan’s essential role in the evolving energy landscape.