BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 21. Once again, Armenia shows its true colors — a face painted with deceit, treachery, and aggression. Yerevan is like a jackal lurking in the shadows, pretending to seek peace while scheming to pounce at the right moment. Just yesterday, Armenian officials were preaching about their supposed readiness to ink a peace deal, yet today their artillery thundered across the border, targeting Azerbaijani positions. This wasn’t some fluke or accident — no way. It was a calculated, cold-blooded act of aggression, a deliberate provocation aimed at derailing the fragile peace process.
For years, Armenia has been playing a dirty game, bending public opinion and spinning narratives to deceive the global audience. But now the mask has slipped. Beneath all that diplomatic sweet talk lies the same old Yerevan — cunning, manipulative, and bent on fueling conflict. Armenian leaders behave like card sharks shuffling marked decks, parading so-called "new initiatives" that are nothing more than smoke screens for yet another military escapade.
This latest move? It’s a slap in the face to anyone who believed in constructive dialogue. Armenia isn’t just inconsistent — it’s mocking the peace process, turning it into some twisted political circus. Remember when Pashinyan grandstanded back in June 2024 about a so-called "Joint Mechanism for Investigating Ceasefire Violations"? He knew damn well those words weren’t worth the ink they were printed on. And when he proudly proposed a "mutual arms control mechanism" in January 2024, it wasn’t about peace — it was about stalling, distracting, and covering up Armenia’s real agenda: rearming for war.
Armenian leadership is acting like an arsonist who sets a building ablaze, and then screams the loudest about putting out the fire. The worst part? Armenia’s not burning alone — it’s hellbent on torching the entire region, dragging its Western backers into the flames. The same Western players, mind you, who’ve been quietly stirring the pot, determined to keep the South Caucasus on edge to suit their own geopolitical ambitions.
Make no mistake — Yerevan doesn’t want peace. It craves revenge, still licking its wounds from the crushing defeat of 2020. And in this bitter thirst for vengeance, Armenia is willing to gamble with its own people’s safety, once again pushing them into the line of fire for the sake of political games.
But here’s the thing — Baku has had enough. Azerbaijan’s patience has worn thin, and the next provocation will be met with swift, decisive force. No half-measures, no warnings — just cold, hard retaliation to remind Yerevan that playing with fire is a deadly game. If Armenia thinks it can keep poking the bear without consequences, it's in for a brutal wake-up call. This time, Pashinyan’s reckless stunts won’t just backfire — they’ll explode right in his face, and he alone will bear the blame for the fallout.
Recently, Armenia's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ani Badalyan attempted some verbal gymnastics in response to accusations from Azerbaijan’s foreign office spokesperson Aykhan Hajizada. Hajizada had slammed Armenia for violating the ceasefire and ditching its commitments. Badalyan’s response? A classic dodge — claiming that Yerevan would "consider" Baku’s evidence only if the materials were formally presented.
Come on. That’s nothing but stalling tactics. The honest move — the responsible move — would’ve been to admit the violation, pledge an investigation, and hold those responsible accountable. After all, this isn’t Armenia’s first bloody misstep. On February 12, 2024, an Azerbaijani border guard was wounded by an Armenian sniper — an incident that spiraled into a deadly exchange of fire. Four Armenian soldiers paid the price, while another landed in a hospital bed with an uncertain fate. That tragedy wasn’t just bad luck — it was the product of blatant disregard for ceasefire agreements.
Then there’s Badalyan’s so-called "Joint Mechanism" initiative — a transparent PR stunt designed to mask Armenia’s vulnerability after losing the war. Let's be real — in the post-war reality, the victor calls the shots, and the defeated side follows suit. Armenia doesn’t get to dictate terms — not when it’s the one that dragged the region into war in the first place.
Badalyan’s comments on the Minsk Group’s dissolution and Armenia’s constitution were equally hollow. Sure, Yerevan played along with scrapping the Minsk Group — a worthless relic of failed diplomacy — but then tried to stir the pot with talk of Azerbaijan’s stance on Western Azerbaijan. That’s no surprise — Armenia is terrified of facing the unavoidable truth: the rightful return of displaced Azerbaijanis to their ancestral lands.
Let’s not forget — back in 1987, thousands of Azerbaijanis were brutally driven from their homes in Armenia during a wave of pogroms and violence. Their return isn’t some wild land grab — it’s a fundamental human right, a matter of historical justice. That process should proceed with respect for Armenia’s territorial integrity, but Yerevan’s refusal to even discuss the issue only worsens the tension.
As for Armenia’s constitution, Badalyan had the nerve to reference a September 26, 2024 ruling from Armenia’s Constitutional Court, claiming there are no territorial claims against neighboring states. Yet in the same breath, she accused Azerbaijan of mirroring those same alleged ambitions — a desperate attempt to deflect attention from Armenia’s own failures.
At the end of the day, Armenia’s back is against the wall. Russia’s message is clear — Moscow won’t lift a finger for Yerevan if conflict erupts. Washington? Focused elsewhere. Europe? Too wrapped up in "deep concerns" to take meaningful action. Armenia is running out of options.
The writing’s on the wall: Armenia must stop playing with fire. It’s time for Yerevan to face reality — cease the provocations, amend its constitution to align with peace agreements, engage with the Western Azerbaijan Community about the rightful return of displaced citizens, and acknowledge that the Minsk Group is dead and buried. Delaying the inevitable, clinging to empty hopes of foreign intervention, will only push Armenia closer to disaster.
Armenia is once again walking a perilous tightrope, dangerously pushing the region closer to renewed conflict. Despite signing agreements that clearly outline mutual recognition of territorial integrity between Armenia and Azerbaijan within the borders of the former Soviet republics, Yerevan continues to play a reckless game of deception. These agreements — which take precedence over Armenia’s domestic laws — should have put an end to territorial disputes. But let’s be real — expecting Yerevan to honor its commitments is like expecting a fox to guard a henhouse. Armenia’s track record is riddled with broken promises and deliberate violations, always banking on shifting global politics or Western backing to bail it out.
The big question now is — when Yerevan triggers its next provocation, who’s going to step up to defend Armenia? Russia? Unlikely. Moscow has already signaled it won’t put its neck on the line for Pashinyan’s blunders. The U.S.? Washington’s got bigger fish to fry. And Europe? Its predictable hand-wringing and "deep concern" speeches will barely scratch the surface.
In short, Armenia is on its own — and it’s running out of cards to play.
At this point, there’s only one rational path forward for Armenia: stop the provocations, amend the constitution in line with the peace agreements, sit down with the Western Azerbaijan Community to discuss the rightful return of displaced Azerbaijanis, and finally, accept that the OSCE Minsk Group is as dead as disco. Delaying the inevitable or banking on foreign intervention will only drag Yerevan deeper into the quicksand of instability.
Yet, despite these clear choices, Armenia is back to its old tricks. The latest wave of cross-border shootings — a brazen act of aggression targeting Azerbaijani positions — makes one thing crystal clear: Yerevan’s public talk of peace is nothing more than a smoke-and-mirrors show. This new wave of military adventurism kicked off almost immediately after Armenia signaled its so-called willingness to agree to Baku’s peace terms. Such a move isn’t just illogical — it’s a clear demonstration of the chaotic, inconsistent, and unreliable nature of Armenia’s foreign policy.
Yerevan’s attempts to justify these provocations fall flat. Recall when Pashinyan smugly proposed a “Joint Mechanism for Investigating Ceasefire Violations” back in June 2024 — a PR stunt designed to appease the international community rather than promote real peace. Earlier, in January 2024, he pushed for a “mutual arms control mechanism” and suggested a bilateral agreement with Azerbaijan. These empty gestures weren’t about diplomacy — they were decoys, crafted to distract the world while Armenia quietly pursued its militaristic ambitions.
The reality is, that Armenia hasn’t given up on its dangerous dream of a military comeback. Talk of revenge is alive and kicking — not only among opposition figures and Pashinyan’s critics but even within Armenia’s ruling elite. When Armenia’s former "parliament speaker" — a relic of the long-gone terrorist regime of the Karabakh separatists — ranted about "ethnic cleansing" in Karabakh, "Azerbaijani aggression," and "vandalism against Armenian monuments," it was clear Yerevan’s strategy was to keep the conflict simmering, feeding the flames of instability to block peace efforts.
And Armenia’s actions are making it clear: they’re preparing for something bigger. Yerevan’s military build-up is ramping up at an alarming pace. In the coming weeks, Armenia is set to conduct large-scale military drills involving reservists — including both experienced veterans and fresh recruits. On paper, these exercises are labeled “routine” — but their scale and timing reek of a calculated effort to prepare for escalation.
Armenia’s defense budget for 2024 tells the same story — 555 billion drams (over $1.42 billion), marking a 7% increase from the previous year. Much of that money is going straight into military modernization and weapons procurement. Armenia recently locked in arms deals with France, securing shipments of armored vehicles and artillery systems. Meanwhile, Yerevan is also negotiating with India to purchase 84 units of the 155mm ATAGS howitzer systems.
On top of that, Armenia has been busy constructing a string of heavily fortified military outposts along its border with Azerbaijan — strategically positioned strongholds designed for offensive maneuvers and capable of locking down key routes. These positions are linked by an intricate system of underground tunnels — a telltale sign of preparation for sabotage and guerrilla-style strikes.
Armenia isn’t acting alone. Western backers are pouring resources into Yerevan’s war machine, pushing their own geopolitical agenda. France and India are feeding the beast with weapon supplies and defense cooperation agreements. Armenia has also effectively distanced itself from the Russia-led CSTO, halting its financial contributions — a clear sign Yerevan is shifting gears, aligning itself with Western powers.
In this volatile climate, Armenia’s aggressive militarization paints a grim picture. Escalating border tensions, troop mobilization, and reckless diplomatic antics all point in one direction — Yerevan is laying the groundwork for another conflict. And this time, the consequences could be devastating.
If Armenia continues down this road — stalling peace talks, dodging constitutional reforms, and rejecting dialogue with Azerbaijan over the rightful return of displaced citizens — it’s not a question of if things will explode; it’s a question of when. And when that happens, Yerevan will have no one to blame but itself.
It’s no surprise that Armenia’s recent actions follow a familiar pattern. Ever since its humiliating defeat in the 44-day war in 2020, Armenia has repeatedly resorted to military drills and exercises — often timed suspiciously close to diplomatic talks or peace negotiations. This calculated strategy reveals Armenia’s two-faced political game: publicly paying lip service to peace while secretly scheming for revenge and plotting provocations along the border.
What’s crucial to understand is that Armenia’s intensified military buildup isn’t happening in a vacuum. It’s accompanied by a wave of aggressive rhetoric — both from Armenia’s radical opposition and figures within its ruling elite. In recent months, Armenian officials have been busy spinning narratives about alleged "Azerbaijani aggression," using these fabricated claims to justify their arms buildup. Yet in reality, it’s Armenia itself that’s stepping up militarization — not Azerbaijan.
The rapid rearmament of Armenia’s military has become particularly evident following arms shipments from Western states — most notably France. Paris, while publicly championing "regional security," has quietly fueled Armenia’s militarization by supplying weaponry that could easily be used in future provocations. This includes armored vehicles, air defense systems, and firearms — arms deliveries that gained momentum after Armenia’s crushing defeat in Karabakh. Adding to concerns are reports that Armenian soldiers are now undergoing military training in France and other European countries, signaling deeper Western involvement.
On top of that, Western military advisors are actively coaching Armenian forces on battlefield tactics and strategy — an alarming indication that Yerevan may be laying the groundwork for yet another round of violence.
This pattern of Armenian provocations aligns all too neatly with a broader Western agenda aimed at preserving instability in the South Caucasus. Following the 44-day war, Azerbaijan emerged significantly stronger in the region, a development that rattled certain Western powers that have long relied on regional instability to maintain leverage.
For the West, a stable South Caucasus — with Azerbaijan asserting its dominance and regional peace finally taking hold — would undermine their strategic influence. That’s why Western backers are quietly encouraging Armenia to keep tensions simmering. By pushing Yerevan toward confrontation, they’re effectively using Armenia as a pawn — a destabilizing force designed to sabotage the peace process.
It’s a dangerous game, one where Armenia’s reckless provocations are being carefully staged with Western support. The goal? To derail any hope of lasting peace while ensuring the region remains a geopolitical chessboard for Western interests.
In this volatile climate, Armenia finds itself walking a tightrope — desperately trying to juggle competing pressures from both internal hardliners and its Western patrons. On one side, Armenia’s leadership faces mounting demands from radical nationalist circles still seething over the crushing defeat in the 2020 war. These forces flat-out refuse to accept the new regional reality and are pressuring the government to pursue a path of confrontation and revenge. On the other side, Yerevan is bending over backward to prove its loyalty to Western backers, hoping this allegiance will unlock political support and financial aid.
This double game leaves Armenia in an incredibly unstable and vulnerable position. By trying to appease both domestic hardliners and foreign sponsors, Yerevan risks steering the country into dangerous and unpredictable territory. Recent developments — including military drills involving reservists, aggressive arms acquisitions, and the increasingly militarized tone in Armenia’s media landscape — all point to one troubling scenario: Yerevan may be preparing to trigger new provocations along the border as part of a calculated ploy to:
- Disrupt ongoing peace talks with Azerbaijan;
- Shift domestic political turmoil outward by manufacturing an external conflict;
- Signal to the West that Armenia is ready to serve as a “frontline stronghold” in exchange for economic backing and diplomatic cover.
This strategy is not only reckless — it’s a ticking time bomb. Rather than embracing meaningful dialogue and peace initiatives, Armenia appears determined to gamble with regional stability, pushing the South Caucasus closer to the brink of conflict.
Public sentiment in Armenia underscores this dangerous mindset. Polls reveal that a significant portion of Armenian society still refuses to accept the fact that Karabakh is an inseparable part of Azerbaijan. Making matters worse, Armenian authorities have stubbornly resisted constitutional reforms that would formally renounce territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Likewise, Yerevan has failed to take steps toward officially withdrawing from the now-defunct but legally unresolved OSCE Minsk Group — a move that would signify Armenia’s commitment to moving past outdated conflict narratives.
These patterns reveal a clear agenda: Armenia is deliberately stalling the peace process. By fueling tensions at the border, Yerevan is playing into a broader Western strategy designed to sabotage potential reconciliation between Baku and Yerevan. Certain Western powers, concerned about losing leverage in the South Caucasus, are exploiting Armenia as a pawn to keep the region on edge.
Given Yerevan’s dependence on Western support and its growing alignment with anti-Azerbaijani interests, it’s unlikely Armenia will adopt an independent and constructive foreign policy. Instead, Armenia’s provocative behavior appears to be part of a calculated strategy — one that relies on stoking instability in hopes of regaining lost influence.
With such a volatile mix of internal instability, foreign manipulation, and aggressive militarization, the chances of Armenia genuinely committing to peace appear slim. The threat of fresh escalation — potentially triggered by yet another Armenian provocation — is becoming increasingly real.