BAKU, Azerbaijan, December 8. Total global biofuel demand from 2022 through 2027 is set to expand by 22 percent, or 35 billion liters per year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said, Trend reports via the latest Renewables 2022 publication from the Agency.
According to the main IEA's forecast, the US, Canada, Brazil, Indonesia and India will make up 80 percent of global growth in biofuel use, as all five countries have comprehensive policy packages that boost the expansion.
"Renewable diesel is expected to lead the global expansion for the first time mainly, driven by policies designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in advanced economies," the report noted.
Biojet fuel demand, in turn, expands significantly to 3.8 billion liters per year in the IEA's main forecast - 35 times the 2021 level, and is expected to account for nearly 1 percent of total jet fuel consumption.
At the same time, one-third of new biofuels production is set to come from waste and residues by 2027.
"Transport greenhouse gas reduction policies in Europe and the US are fuelling global demand for waste and residues. The US Inflation Reduction Act drives a 20 percent increase in our biojet and renewable diesel forecast. The policy rewards lower greenhouse gas intensity fuels, driving biofuel producers to focus on waste and residues. In Europe, the existing Renewable Energy Directive and member state policies reward biofuels made from waste and residues. Most biofuel growth in Europe is also for renewable diesel and biojet. Singapore and China are also expanding renewable diesel and biojet production from waste and residues to serve the European and US markets," the report said.
Demand for waste and residue oils and fats is expected to nearly exhaust supplies of the most readily available sources by 2027.
"In advanced economies, supply limits are prompting biodiesel, renewable diesel and biojet producers to secure conventional vegetable oils such soybean oil and rapeseed oil. Vegetable oil supplies dedicated to biofuel production expand to 23 percent from 17 percent over the forecast period. However, higher prices due to strong demand will prompt companies and governments to improve feedstock supply chains, seek out new supplies and develop new techniques. Policies and innovation can also help unlock untapped supplies and support technology development, enabling the use of more widely available feedstocks for sustainable biofuel production," the IEA noted.
Meanwhile, as the Agency forecasts, global renewable energy capacity is expected to increase by almost 2,400 GW (almost 75 percent) from 2022 through 2027.
This year’s forecast has been revised upwards by almost 30 percent from last year’s, despite energy market turbulence, mainly because China, Europe, the US, and India are carrying out the existing policies, regulatory and market reforms, and new policies in order to combat the energy crisis faster than expected, the report said.