BAKU, Azerbaijan, January 20. Crude oil production by OPEC+ is expected to decline in 2023, compared to the same period last year, mainly due to the impact of the EU embargo on Russian oil and oil products, as well as G7 price restrictions, Trend reports via the latest oil market update from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
"Crude oil production from the OPEC+ alliance is expected to decline year-on-year in 2023 primarily due to the impact of the EU embargoes on Russian crude and products along with the G7 price caps. The big question is just how far Russian output will fall," the IEA said.
Meanwhile, production in Saudi Arabia and its Persian Gulf neighbors is expected to remain generally stable compared to 2022, provided that the unit maintains a reduction in production until 2023, while significant upside potential lies mostly in Libya, Nigeria and Kazakhstan – all of which suffered declines last year.
"As for December, OPEC+ crude oil production from all 23 countries inched down 10 kb/d to 44.53 mb/d. A substantial increase from Nigeria was offset by lower output in the UAE. Russian crude supply eased. Saudi Arabia - along with Iraq and Kuwait - continued to pump at or around OPEC+ quotas. Volumes from OPEC countries eased 40 kb/d to 29.19 mb/d while output from non-OPEC partners rose 30 kb/d to 15.34 mb/d. Production from the 19 members bound by quotas decreased by 50 kb/d to 38.33 mb/d last month leaving a gap of 1.77 mb/d between the bloc’s supply and official targets. Due to sanctions, Russia leads those lagging far below quotas, while operational issues and capacity constraints are keeping countries such as Nigeria and Angola well under target," the report said.