ADB Forecasts Growth Rate Drop in Central Asia and Caucasus
Azerbaijan, Baku, 20 October / Trend corr. N.Ismayilova/The report by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) for the countries in Central Asia and Caucasus for 2008 says that the risk of the world financial crisis for Azerbaijan is not great as the country's access to international capital markets is restricted.
The going on increase of fuel prices has asymmetric effect on the countries in the region. The increase in exported energy carriers raised investments into net export in GDP for hydrocarbon exporters -Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
According to bank experts, the extended expenditure for public need in Azerbaijan is directed to support the investment activity.
The extension is weakening in internal demand through sub region. ADB experts expect drop the growth rate in sub region to 7.6% in 2008, against 11.6% in 2007.
ADB expects that the growth in 2009, which the bank forecasted in April, would be muffled and the forecast will be cut from 8.4% to 8% in 2009.
In 2009, the expected restoration in Kazakhstan will support the sub region growth, overbalancing the possible slowing down in the oil boom in Azerbaijan. The ingenuous concern with Azerbaijan is the influence of the recent Georgian-South Caucasus conflict on the Azerbaijani oil transit via Georgia.
In Azerbaijan, the matching of the nominal efficient currency calculation to the exchange basket, which was accepted this year, is directed to restrain inflation import. The pressure on inflation was extended by accelerated crediting and manat base growth.
Some countries took finance measures to warn the increasing foodstuff prices. The measures include cut of tax rates and customs duties on grains (Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan), introduction of subsidies to purchase foodstuff by poverty (Kyrgyzstan), presence of transfer (Azerbaijan) and subsidies for agriculture (Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan). Financial deficits in the oil sector in GDP apart from oil products for Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan will be extended.
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