Baku, Azerbaijan, April 15
Trend:
GDP growth in Kazakhstan in 2020 and 2021 is estimated at 3.4 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively, Trend reports with reference to the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) review data.
With the revival of credit activity, consumer and investment demand has expanded.
The EDB expects a slowdown in the growth of Kazakhstan’s economy to 3.3 percent in 2019 amid a decline in oil production due to repair work in oil production facilities.
In 2018, economic growth in Kazakhstan was supported by an increase in oil production and a favorable price situation on the global energy market.
EDB experts also noted that the consolidated budget of Kazakhstan in 2018 was executed with a surplus for the first time since 2015.
The factors for improving the state of the budget were the increase in state revenues against the background of a relatively favorable external environment and economic growth, as well as a decrease in government spending on improving the banking system compared to 2017.
EDB noted that the fiscal policy of the authorities during the forecast period will continue to ensure the implementation of development measures in the framework of the main program documents of Kazakhstan.
The cost of tenge against the US dollar and the euro declined in 2018, which fits into the general trend in emerging currency markets - the weakening of the course against the background of the US Federal Reserve interest rate increase and the overall growth of economic and political risks in the world.
The macroeconomic review shows that inflation in Kazakhstan according to the results of 2018 amounted to 5.3 percent and is within the target interval of the National Bank of Kazakhstan (5–7 percent).
A significant role in slowing inflation was played by lower prices for automobile fuel after the completion of the modernization program at leading refineries, as well as lower prices for electricity and heat for the population.
The forecast of EDB analysts relative to the dynamics of inflation in 2019 was lowered to 4.3 percent (in December 2018, inflation was projected at 5.4 percent by the end of 2019).
The revision of the forecast is primarily due to the effect of lower prices for gasoline and utility services in late 2018 - early 2019.
In the medium term, inflation is expected to take shape within the target corridor of the National Bank with a gradual approach to 4 percent by the end of 2021.
Reducing inflation will be promoted by maintaining the interest rate of the interbank market in tenge near its neutral level, estimated at 7.5-8 percent.
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